US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Strong Bounce Alleviates Concerns

• +9,000 FVK6 108.25/108.5/109/109.25 put condors, 4 vs. 109-16.75/0.05%

WSJ reports that "The number of Iranian ballistic missile launches is declining and at current rates Tehran has only several more days of firepower from them, according to a Western official. Still, the decline might also be because Iran is holding back missiles so its operations can last longer, the official said." A dwindling of missile supplies would limit Iran's ability to launch high-impact precision strike farther afield, notably against Israel. However, the official highlights that "Even as its ability to fire sophisticated missiles dwindles, Iran can still maintain a drumbeat of attacks with cheaper systems, such as drones"

• Previously, MNI noted comments from Kelly Greico at the US-based Stimson Center think tank (MIDEAST: US Confirms Jets Downed Over Kuwait By Friendly Fire), who noted "The UAE spent 5–10x more defending than Iran spent attacking. [...] For every $1 Iran spent on drones, the UAE spent roughly $20–28 shooting them down. [...] To be clear: the UAE had to intercept. But here's the strategic trap: every interceptor fired is one that can't be replaced overnight. PAC-3 MSEs take years to manufacture. Iran's Shaheds do not."
• One advantage for the Iranian targets is that if Tehran's strikes are limited to drones, with no ballistic missiles, they can be brought down with more conventional, low-cost options (including anti-aircraft machine guns) rather than the highly expensive missile interceptors. 

• *Natixis believe the recent EUR/USD sell-off has taken place in an exceptionally stressful macro and geopolitical environment. They believe this sharp, fear-driven decline presents a tactical opportunity. While the euro has been badly shaken, we see the dollar's strength as increasingly cyclical and crisis-driven rather than structural. Natixis forecast a progressive EUR/USD recovery towards 1.20 by year-end and propose a EUR/USD call reverse knock-out to play the rebound.
• *ING: The terms of trade story will be the far more important theme and the duration of this energy shock will determine whether EUR/USD needs to trade down to 1.10/12 or can find support near 1.15. ING’s base case is the latter, in which we would expect operational intensity to decrease over the next week and the Straits of Hormuz to slowly reopen.
• *CIBC: The energy price spike remains problematic for the Eurozone and absent a close above the 200Day MAV, currently 1.1671, CIBC would remain mindful of EUR/USD correcting back towards strong support in line with the 5 November low at 1.1469.
• *BBVA: What happens with oil and gas will be key for the EURUSD. If they cannot flow through Hormuz, we will see the EURUSD fall below 1.15. If the situation is finally resolved, current levels are good entry points for long positions.