US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: A Crude Shift Further From Target

{GB}Chancellor Reeves now expected after 16:30GMT / 12:30ET.

• The Deputy Speaker just noted that she wants to wrap up the current debate by 16:30 ahead of the statements due later.

• +30,000 0QM6 96.25 puts, 5.5 vs. 96.76 to -.77/0.17%

The overall trends in the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations suggest steadying inflation expectations but elevated concerns over labor market prospects, largely mirroring other peer surveys.

• February's edition showed the median 1-year ahead expected inflation rate ticked down to 3.00% from 3.09%, with longer-term gauges relatively steady (3Y 3.00% after 2.98% and and 5Y 2.98% after 3.00%). This of course comes before the Middle East war-related spike in energy prices in March which if sustained would likely push up inflation expectations accordingly, thus rendering the February report somewhat stale.
• On other metrics, there were mixed though largely positive signals sent on consumer sentiment. In the most positive sign, debt delinquency expectations (not being able to make minimum debt payments) fell to 11.6% from 13.7% prior, lowest since February 2024 after hitting a post-pandemic high above 15% in December. The December spike had been widely cited as a warning sign for consumer fragility so this pullback will  One-year ahead spending growth expectations and income growth expectations were flat at 4.9% and 2.9%, respectively.
• On the labor front, however, results were very mixed. Median expected earnings growth pulled back to 2.54% from the prior 10-month high 2.70%, but mean probability of losing a job dropped to a 3-month low 13.8% from 14.8% prior and expectations of a higher unemployment rate 1-year ahead fell to 40.0% from 41.9% (a 6-month low), echoing a similar metric in the UMichigan survey.
• The expectation of finding a job in 3 months if one's job was lost today fell to 44.0% from 45.6%, close to the series low 43.1% in December in something of a warning sign for future unemployment (see chart), while the mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next twelve months fell 2.8pp to 15.9% percent, a new series low for what is basically the expected quits rate.