REFINING: MNI: Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Oil Infrastructure Tracker

The 129.00 figure has contained upside in Bund futures this morning, keeping resistance at the 50-day EMA of 129.04 intact. Rallies short of this level will be considered corrective for now.  Bunds are + 3 ticks at 128.89 at typing.

• The German curve has bull flattened, with yields flat to 2bps lower on the session. Modest downside in oil/gas futures and a move away from highs for equities have provided background support for bonds.
• Long-end German ASWs saw a brief bout of widening pressure after an interview with an Executive Board member of the DFA was released. However, the moves quickly faded. Although DFA will take into account term premium when considering the maturity structure of next year’s debt sales, total issuance could still exceed E500bln.
• 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are marginally narrower on the session. No material underperformance for OATs after the National Assembly rejected the Revenue section of the 2026 budget over the weekend. Meanwhile, Italy’s ratings upgrade from Moody’s was in line with expectations.
• In data, the German November IFO Business Climate Index fell slightly, underperforming expectations at 88.1 (88.5 consensus, 88.4 prior). The current assessment reading improved marginally this time (85.6 vs 85.5 cons; 85.3 prior) but remained within recent ranges at a subdued level, while expectations were the driver behind the overall deterioration (90.6 vs 91.6 cons and prior).
• This week’s primary regional focus is the November flash inflation round, which begins on Friday. 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine??? Don’t believe it until you see it, but something good just may be happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!

Lower equities & crude oil, as well as a light bid in wider core global FI, provides spill over support for UK paper in early Monday trade.

• Yields 0.5-1.5bp lower, curve modestly flatter.
• Bulls have struggled to push futures through Friday’s high (92.43), registering highs of 92.44 before a fade back to ~92.35.
• Bears remain in technical control at this stage
• A break higher would expose the November 18 high (92.60), which protects the 20-day EMA (92.70).
• Meanwhile, support comes in at 91.51.
• Roll activity continues to support turnover in futures.
• Domestic focus remains centred on Wednesday’s Budget. Our full preview of that event is here.
• News flow reaffirms the idea that the OBR is set to downgrade growth across its forecast horizon.
• Elsewhere, we have highlighted the likely reduction in headline and services CPI surrounding the reported freeze of rail fares (-0.02ppt & 0.04-0.05ppt respectively in March ’26).
• GBP STIRs little changed, pricing over 80% odds of a December rate cut and a terminal BoE rate of ~3.35%.
• Note that the BoE will come to market with GBP750mln of medium-term paper from its APF this afternoon.