MNI UK Labour Preview: June 2025 Release

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• As we have noted on previous occasions, official UK labour market data has fallen in priority over the past few months, but with a number of pay settlements filtering into the official data, it is more in focus again.
• The most important number in the report remains the private AWE ex-bonus. Consensus expects this to fall to 5.3% in the 3-months to April from 5.56%Y/Y in the 3-months to March (which was 0.14ppt above the BOE’s forecast) and 5.90% in the 3-months to February.