UK DATA: MNI UK Inflation Preview: October 2025
Nov-18 07:53
For the full MNI UK CPI Preview, including summaries of sellside views click here.
- Governor Bailey’s vote at the December MPC meeting is still far from guaranteed despite last week’s soft labour market data. We still think that assuming data comes in broadly in line with expectations and we don’t have an inflationary Budget that Bailey will vote to support a cut at the December MPC meeting, which would hence see a 5-4 vote for a pre-Christmas 25bp cut.
- The BOE November MPR forecast looks for headline CPI to come in at 3.60%Y/Y – this forecast is 11 hundredths below the August MPR expectation following a 21 hundredth downside surprise in September. The analyst previews that we have read look for a median around a tenth lower at 3.51%Y/Y (although note that most of the analyst forecasts are only to 1dp).
- 13/18 analyst previews that we have read (over 70%) look for headline CPI to round to 3.5%Y/Y (or lower) while only 2/18 look for an upside surprise for the BOE (rounding to 3.7%Y/Y).
- With sellside expectations skewed towards a softer print, and markets pricing in 18bp for the December meeting, we think that an upside surprise to the BOE’s forecast would therefore likely cause a larger market move than a downside surprise.
- For the October print, air fares provide the largest uncertainty while analysts expect food prices to come in lower than the BOE’s forecasts. Education and cultural services are likely to contribute positively to services CPI while rental and accommodation prices are expected to soften. We continue to see restaurant prices as a key barometer of the pricing power of consumer discretionary firms. We look into the details for all of these components in our preview.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
