MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: Sep 2025 Release

Click here for the full document.

• Both of this week’s major releases were broadly in line with expectations and therefore don’t really move the needle with regards to the probability of a cut in Q4. We also think they will have no implication on the communication from today’s MPC meeting (or for the vote split today).
• We look at the details of the CPI release and whether we will get any bounceback next month from air fares or accomodation data.
• We think the private regular AWE data is on course to undershoot the BOE's Q3 forecast - but to a lesser degree than in Q2.
• Labour quantities data looks less alarming than in recent times, however,  we look at this data in more detail, too.