MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: January 2026

For the full MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight Full Document click here

• The big picture view is that labour market quantities data are still mixed with wage growth not a million miles away from the BOE’s forecast.
• CPI data saw an upside surprise to food for consensus but this wasn’t broad-based and food inflation remains 0.8ppt below the BOE’s forecast (the same as last month’s data). Headline CPI is 0.09ppt below the BOE’s forecast – which will likely be described as largely in line in the upcoming MPR.
• The market did react to the release of both of these data points, but there was a slightly bigger reaction to the PMI data on Friday which pointed to notable upside surprises on both output and prices.
• We look at the details behind the numbers.