MNI UK Data Preview: January 2026 Release

For the full preview including summaries of analyst expectations click here.

• Both labour market data (Tuesday) and inflation data (Wednesday) are due for release this week. Unless we saw something substantial in both prints, we don't think there will be any impact on the February MPC decision.
• On the labour market data, private regular wage growth is expected to continue to moderate and the MNI median sees it at 3.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (with a skew towards a lower number). 
• Based on the single month data, we think that risks are skewed towards a lower number).
• Regarding CPI, there are a number of question marks this month the most pressing are 1) when will the survey date be  (and what is the impact on air fares) and 2) how much of a rebound there will be from some of the early Black Friday Discounts.
• In addition to these, accommodation base effects are expected to increase headline CPI (due to weakness in December 2024) while headline CPI is widely expected to see a 0.05ppt contribution from tobacco.
• We look in more depth at expectations for air fares: the median expectation seems to be around 30%M/M (which is around 12%Y/Y and contributing around 0.06ppt to headline CPI and around 0.12ppt to services CPI). Analyst expectations are for an increase of between around 14-30%M/M if the index date was 9 December and if it is 16 December expectations range from 30-60%M/M.