MNI SARB Preview - Nov 2025: SARB May Cut Rates Again

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Executive Summary:

• The SARB will likely decide between a 25bp cut and a hold; consensus is for the former.
• FinMin Godongwana confirmed a downshift in the inflation target to +3.0% Y/Y.
• Inflation picture looks benign but Oct CPI report will provide a last-minute update.

A majority of economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut interest rates by 25bp and we align with the consensus call but consider this week’s decision as relatively difficult to forecast. The panel convenes for the first time after last week’s formalisation of a lower +3% Y/Y inflation objective, which had already been its implicit target since an informal shift in July. The overall benign inflation picture and a positive outlook support the case for a decrease in interest rates, but the October CPI report due on the even of the decision is expected to show a temporary upturn in headline inflation, which could prompt the MPC to exercise caution – especially in case of an upside surprise.