MNI Riksbank Review - August '25: Keeping Options Open

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank held rates at 2.00% in August, as unanimously expected. The Board continues to see “some probability of a further interest rate cut this year”, with the June outlook broadly affirmed despite the summer uptick in inflationary pressures. This was in line with MNI’s expectations ahead of the decision.
• The August decision was balanced overall, keeping a September cut on the table without signalling an urgent need to ease policy at that meeting. 
• With markets still pricing the September decision as a coin toss between a hold and a cut, there will be plenty of focus on the Q2 GDP and August inflation reports in the coming weeks.
• The policy statement, Monetary Policy Update and press conference played down the recent increase in inflation, referencing the role of temporary, volatile factors like foreign travel and car rental. The outlook for economic activity is still considered to be “weak”, which is the main reason for retaining a dovish bias in the policy statement.
• We haven’t seen any analyst view changes following the decision. The median analyst still tilts in favour of one more rate cut in September.