MNI Riksbank Preview: November 2025 - No Fireworks This Time

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank is almost certain to remain on hold at 1.75% on Wednesday, while reiterating that the policy rate “is expected to remain at this level for some time to come”.
• Since September, there have been several datapoints suggesting an economic recovery is underway, supported by accommodative monetary policy, an anticipated expansion of fiscal policy and declining trade policy uncertainty.
• However, we don't think these developments are enough to shift the Board from its clearly signalled path, particularly at an interim meeting with no updated MPR and rate path projection (only a concise Monetary Policy Update document will be presented).
• Soft signals from the Riksbank's Business Survey and a lack of improvement in hard labour market data should guard against the Board sending too hawkish a signal in November.