MNI Riksbank Preview: January 2026 - No Hawkish Pivot Yet

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on Thursday, while re-iterating that it is “expected to remain at this level for some time to come” The January decision does not include an updated MPR or rate path projection, only a concise Monetary Policy Update document.
• We expect communication to re-iterate that a cyclical economic recovery is underway, but believe lingering downside inflation concerns, the much stronger-than-expected krona and spare capacity in the labour market will guard against any hawkish pivot for now. Geopolitical uncertainty and a (brief) return of tariff risks will likely also provide the Board a reason to stay cautious
• If growth signals and the labour market continue to improve over the coming months and downside inflation risks fail to increase, it may warrant a small upward revision to the Riksbank’s Q4 2026 rate projection at the March or (more likely) June MPR meeting. 
• None of the analysts we monitor look for another Riksbank cut this cycle, while the timing of hike expectations vary.