MNI RBNZ Preview-Feb 2026: On Hold, Hike Timing Key Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• At tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. The Bloomberg survey of sell-side economists shows all 22 economists see the policy rate being held at 2.25%. Our strong bias is also for no change tomorrow. If realized, this will leave the focus firmly on the outlook, particular on the RBNZ’s new OCR path. The other focus point will be gauging new RBNZ Governor Breman’s tone, as this will be her first rate setting meeting in charge.
• The RBNZ will also likely be cautious around sounding too hawkish around the outlook, which the market will likely judge via the implied OCR outlook path. We would be surprised if the OCR path is more hawkish than current market pricing, which implies a policy rate near 2.65% by year’s end (versus the current rate of 2.25%). The NZD TWI is up over 4% from Nov 2025 lows, while local rates have also risen. A further material tightening of financial conditions could put the economic recovery in jeopardy. This is also where Breman’s tone is likely to be watched closely in terms of keeping the policy outlook flexible. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBNZ Preview - Feb 2026.pdf