EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Projects 2.0-2.1% Y/Y German National CPI, Core 2.8%
From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national May flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 GMT / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) printed around 0.0-0.1% M/M and rose 2.0-2.1% Y/Y (April 2.1%). See the tables below for full calculations.
- Analyst consensus stands at 2.1% Y/Y and 0.1% M/M, so there might be some slight downside risks to headline inflation. We had initially seen some marginal upside risks, but since then Rhineland-Palatinate, Berlin and Saarland data all came in softer than the 2.1% Y/Y consensus figure. Either way, the magnitude of risks vs consensus appears contained this month.
- Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 2.8% (2.9% in April) and 0.1-0.2% M/M.
- We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
- Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| Y/Y | May (Reported) | April (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Hesse | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Bavaria | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| Brandenburg | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Baden Wuert. | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Berlin | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| Saxony | 2.3 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 1.7 | 1.9 | -0.2 |
| Lower Saxony | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| Saarland | 1.8 | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 2.8 | 2.9 | -0.1 |
| Weighted average: | 2.05% | for | 89.1% |
| M/M | May (Reported) | April (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Hesse | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Bavaria | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 |
| Brandenburg | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Baden Wuert. | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.6 |
| Berlin | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 |
| Saxony | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.5 |
| Lower Saxony | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Saarland | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.5 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| Weighted average: | 0.04% | for | 89.1% |
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