US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Offers Opaque Assessment Of Iran Talks

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The Dallas Fed's Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey continued its recent improvement in January, marking a clean sweep of 5 regional Fed non-manufacturing surveys pointing to improved activity to start 2026 - importantly, alongside fading price pressures.

• Dallas's general business activity index hit a 5-month high 2.7 (-5.0 prior). The revenue index, "a key measure of state service sector conditions" per the report, rose from 0 to 7.8.
• The internals were a little more mixed, with the outlook uncertainty index little changed at 16.5, and labor market measures of hours/employment at flat levels. Indeed a special question in the survey showed just "Forty-four percent of surveyed firms are currently trying to hire, down from 51 percent in July 2025 and representing the lowest share since this question was first posed in 2019."
• But there was plenty else to like including a sharp improvement in optimism: future revenue rose 6 points to an above-average 37.2 and future general business activity up to a 12-month high 14.7 (11.5 prior), reflecting increased optimism in categories including employment and capex.
• Related to this improvement in sentiment, we think, is that the Prices Paid gauge dropped considerably too, falling to an 8-month low 21.1 (27.1 prior) with expectations also falling to an 8-month low (37.5).
• Overall this caps the best month on aggregate for regional Fed survey current activity since August 2025.

Oil initially traded to fresh session highs after U.S. President Trump’s latest social media posts threatening Iran (detailed in recent bullets), before moving back from best levels.

• While Trump has amped up the rhetoric, the substance remains largely the same; the U.S. is urging Iran to negotiate a deal while threatening military action if it does not come to the table, helping the lack of topside follow through on the back of the headlines.
• Brent & WTI ~$0.50 higher on the day, with resistance points at $68.58 and $64.09 untouched and the bullish technical theme intact across the major crude benchmarks.