US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Government Shuts Down
Oct-01 12:21
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- At 00:01 ET 05:01 BST, the US government shut down for the first time since the winter of 2018-19. The shutdown was triggered after the Senate rejected a House-passed Continuing Resolution to extend government funding through November. We have a full rundown of the consquences of a shutdown and potential offramps inside.
- President Donald Trump will sign Executive Orders at 16:30 ET 21:30 BST. He has no other public engagements in his diary but is likely to provide remarks to the press as the administration seeks to manage the fallout from the government shutdown.
- Trump previewed a further normalisation of military presence in primarily Democrat-run US cities during a 70-plus-minute speech to an unusual gathering of senior US military officials.
- Trump's 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals take effect today. Pfizer secured a reprieve by striking a deal with the Trump administration.
- Seoul agreed to boost FX intervention data sharing with the US.
- Trump told reporters he will give Hamas "about three or four days" to respond to a US peace plan for Gaza.
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb said it’s only a matter of time before the US takes punitive action against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- Poll of the Day: Republicans would get more of the blame from a government shutdown than Democrats, but a significant percentage would blame both parties equally.
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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 1-7 September
Sep-01 12:20
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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.
Monday 1 September:
- European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to hold talks with Romanian President Nicusor Dan and PM Ilie Bolojan following a visit to Lithuania for talks with President Gitanas Nauseda and a visit to the Belarusian border. The trip has garnered significant attention after the EU confirmed that von der Leyen’s plane had been subject to an interference attack, with GPS navigation services at a Bulgarian airport disabled as her plane was set to land on 30 August. Russia is suspected to have carried out the operation, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied this to the FT.
- United Kingdom: Parliament returns from its summer recess for a short session ahead of the party conference recess that starts on 16 September. Focus during this session remains on when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announces a date for the budget, and speculation on what tax increases and/or spending cuts will be included.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Irish Inflation Accelerates With Core Also Firmer
Sep-01 12:15
Irish HICP headline inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8% Y/Y in August, its highest rate since April. It came with monthly inflation of 0.3% M/M. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food inflation (i.e. a proxy for core) also firmed two tenths to 1.9% Y/Y in August.
- Energy inflation of -0.1% Y/Y marked a slight increase from the -0.3% Y/Y in July. It came as energy prices fell -0.3% M/M, similar to expectations for August on a Eurozone-wide basis more broadly.
- Food meanwhile accelerated to a firm 5.0% Y/Y, up from 4.6% in July.
- "Transport costs have fallen by 0.5% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to August 2025", the statistics office adds.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump's 'Pocket' Rescission Raises Shutdown Risk
Sep-01 12:14
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump has no public events in his diary for Labor Day.
- A federal court considering Fed Governor Lisa Cook's request for a temporary restraining order to allow her to continue serving on the Fed's board will reconvene on Tuesday. Financial markets may not have fully priced in the risks posed by Trump’s attacks on the Fed.
- A federal appeals court panel ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in using emergency declarations to impose unilateral tariffs on trading partners, upholding a previous ruling from the Court of International Trade in New York City.
- Middle-income households appear to be losing confidence in their financial outlook.
- The probability of a government shutdown in October ticked up after Trump informed Congress that he is seeking to undo another $4.9 billion of appropriated funding via an unconventional 'pocket' rescission.
- Today marks Trump’s informal deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make progress on a peace deal with Ukraine.
- European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal remain open to diplomacy with Tehran, despite triggering 'snapback' sanctions.
- Analysts are uncertain about the strategic objective of the US Navy's aggressive forward posture off the coast of Venezuela.
- Poll of the Day: A 76-point partisan gap on the 'direction of the country' is the highest ever recorded by Gallup.
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