US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Daily Brief

Dec-09 13:21
  • Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) has raised the prospect of a continuation of the 50-50 Senate by announcing she intends to switch her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent, just days after Democrats celebrated breaking the deadlock in the Georgia Senate runoff.
  • The US House of Representatives passed its annual defence funding bill, the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA), yesterday in a bipartisan 350-80 vote - committing a record USD$858b to the US defence budget.
  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel (R-KY) warned Democrats, during a classified briefing on Ukraine yesterday, that the GOP will not cave to Democrat demands on Fiscal Year 23 spending.
  • WNBA star Brittney Griner has returned to the United States after the US and Russia completed a high-profile prisoner transfer.
  • Speaker-elect of the United State House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced yesterday that he will establish a new House panel focused on China, should he become Speaker in January.
  • Poll of the Day: American voters are split on whether or not Congress should increase the debt-ceiling.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

Nov-09 13:14
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.78%, $978B
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.75%, $401B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 3.75%, $388B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

US TSYS: What to Watch: Ballot Counts, Fed Speak, 10Y Note Sale

Nov-09 13:07

Tsys steady to mixed, inside relatively narrow overnight range with 30Y seeing some moderate selling ahead the NY open. Moderate volumes (TYZ2<350k) as markets await more definitive results from US midterm elections, no clear leader for control of Congress as yet.

  • NY Fed Williams from Zurich overnight noted that inflation is clearly too high and the path of it uncertain, but that longer run inflation expectations are “remarkably stable”.
  • Additional Fed speakers: Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook at 1100ET, MN Fed Kashkari on inflation, economy later this evening at 2000ET.
  • US Data remains limited: Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.8% prior, 0.8% est), Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (0.1%, 0.5%) at 1000ET. Main focus on CPI Thursday: (0.4%, 0.6%); YoY (8.2%, 7.9%).
  • US Tsy auctions $35B 10Y Notes (912810TL2) at 1300ET.

US TSYS: Overnight SOFR/Treasury Options Roundup

Nov-09 12:53

Overnight trade more mixed after better call trade Tuesday, moderate put volumes as underlying rates trade steady to mixed, short end bid: Fed funds implied hike for Dec stable at 56.5bp from 57.0bp earlier. No Eurodollar option trade to speak of.

  • SOFR Options:
    • Block, 2,000 Green Nov 96.18/96.31 1x2 call spds, 1.5 net ref 96.06
    • 4,000 Green Nov 96.31 calls ref 96.07
    • 4,000 short Jun 94.00/94.50 put spds ref 95.755
    • 4,000 SFRZ3 94.25 puts, ref 95.27 to -.275
  • Treasury Options:
    • 3,200 TYF 114 calls, 12 ref 110-14.5
    • 3,000 TYF 112.5/113.5 call spds vs. TYF 105.5/106.5 put spds
    • 2,500 TYF 107/109 put spds
    • 4,300 FVF 104.5/105.25 put spds ref 106-22
    • Block, 10,000 FVZ 105.5/106.75 put spds, 33.5