US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Tensions Increase Ahead Of US-Iran Talks

Return of corporate issuance in size contributing to the downtick in Treasuries via rate locks and spec acct sales.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 1/05 $Benchmark MUFG 6NC5 +105a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +120a
• 1/05 $Benchmark SFMG 3Y +87a, 3Y SOFR, 6NC5 +110a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +120a, 21NC20 +110
• 1/05 $Benchmark Hyundai Capital 3Y +105a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +115a, 5Y SOFR, 7Y +125a
• 1/05 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +95a, 5Y +100a, 10Y +110a, 30Y +140a
• 1/05 $Benchmark Ford Motor Cr 3Y +180a, 3Y SOFR, 7Y +215a
• 1/05 $Benchmark GM 5Y +120a, 10Y +165a
• 1/05 $Benchmark Williams Cos 3pt details TBA
• 1/05 $Benchmark ADB 10Y SOFR+48a
• 1/05 $Benchmark EIB 5Y SOFR+35a
• 1/05 $Benchmark MetLife 5Y +90a
• 1/05 $Benchmark Societe Generale 4.25NC3.25fix/SOFR, 11.25NC10.25
• 1/05 $Benchmark Credit Agricole 6NC5 +120a, 11NC10 +135a
• 1/05 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y, 5Y, 10Y investor calls
• 1/05 $Benchmark Mitsubishi HC Finance 5Y investor calls
• 1/05 $Benchmark Orange 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 30Y investor calls
• 1/-- $500M Development Bank of Japan WNG 10Y later in the week

USD buyers return in response to the pick-up in US Treasury yields (in turn triggered by Kashkari's 'guess' of rates being closer to neutral, and the sizeable corporate issuance slate today), helping push the greenback to fresh daily highs.

• EUR retains its position as the poorest performing currency in G10 at the NY crossover, and additional USD buying in very recent trade has pressed EURUSD to test the overnight lows.
• More consequentially, EURAUD is now through the late APAC session lows to print 1.7471, the lowest level since June last year (1.7464 marks both the June 10th 2025 low as well as the 76.4% retracement of the May - August upleg, which could slow further slippage from here.
• AUD closely tracked metals prices into end-2025, meaning today's tailwind for gold and silver should keep the currency supported, but positive turns in market fundamentals should also buoy AUD medium-term: the 3m AUDUSD carry/vol ratio switched positive in mid-December.

Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the following at its auction this Thursday, January 8:

• the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00)
• the 3.00% Jan-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P74)
• the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95)

Tesoro Publico has additionally announced it will be looking to sell E250-750mln of the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18) at that auction.