US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Risk Of Wider War Rises After Iran Attack
- The Biden Administration has advised Israel against escalation with Iran after the US military, in concert with Israeli and British forces, successfully repelled over 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles fired from Iran.
- The Iranian attack could compel House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), to fast-track consideration of the supplemental aid package which includes new aid for Israel, Ukraine, and other US allies.
- Johnson has three likely options: 1) He can pass a standalone Israel aid bill; 2) he can hold a vote on the USD$95 billion Senate-passed supplemental package; 3) he can attempt to pass a revised House-drafted national security supplemental which includes the new additions. All three options entail risk and could end in his ouster.
- Jury selection in former President Donald Trump’s ‘hush money’ criminal trial begins in Manhattan, New York today – kicking off what could be the only one of four criminal cases against Trump to take place before the presidential election.
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN yesterday that the US wouldn’t take “anything off the table" in response to China’s manufacturing overcapacity.
- The US has announced a USD$6.4 billion grant for tech giant Samsung to expand advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Austin, Texas.
- White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to India next week where he may lay the groundwork for Biden to attend a Quad leaders' summit in the country.
- Poll of the Day: Biden has erased Trump's early polling advantage.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (M4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 145.13 @ 15:40 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 and 11 (cont)
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
- SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing
Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 144.90 on Friday. A stronger reversal higher is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. The bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. For bears, a resumption of weakness would potentially open the 144.60 support.
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above The Mar 8 Low
- RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3532 @ 16:18 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD short-term conditions remain bearish, however, a continuation of the latest recovery would undermine this theme and expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since December 27. For bears, a move below 1.3420, the Mar 8 low, would resume bearish activity and open 1.3359, the Jan 31 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
- RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6567 @ 16:16 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 0.6552 Low Mar 15
- SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
The latest pullback in AUDUSD appears to be a correction. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6572. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next key support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.
