US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Optimism Increases For Second Round Of Iran Talks

SX7E (17th Apr) 245/240ps, bought for 2.15 in 6k.

• On the commodity front, short-term trend signals in Gold remain bearish and this week’s recovery appears to be corrective. Note that the downtrend is oversold and a stronger corrective bounce would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $4655.7, the Feb 6 low. Key near-term resistance is at 4864.5, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would open $3945.2, a 1.236 projection of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing.
• A bull wave in WTI futures remains intact and Monday's volatile pullback appears corrective. The key support zone to monitor is the area between $85.84 - $75.40, the 20- and 50-day EMA values. A clear break of this zone is required to signal a possible trend reversal. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open $104.50, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 10 sell-off.

SOFR & Treasury option flow leaning towards upside calls overnight, modest volumes so far. Underlying futures firmer but inside week's range as markets assess US/Iran war de-escalation rhetoric. Projected rate move/hike pricing lower vs. late Tuesday lvls (*) (well off early Monday highs): Apr'26 +1bp (+2.1bp), Jun'26 at +2.4bp (+4.7bp), Jul'26 at +2.5bp (+5.6bp), Sep'26 at +4.2bp (+9.6bp), Oct'26 +4.5bp (+11.1bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 0QK6 96.62/96.87 call spds, 6.5 ref 96.38
  • 3,000 SFRM6 96.31/96.43/96.56 call flys
  • -2,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.75/97.12 broken put fly, 3.0
  • over 12,200 SFRM6 96.18 puts ref 96.28
  • -4,000 SFRU6 97.50/98.00 call spd,1.0
  • 1,500 SFRZ6 96.62/96.87 3x2 call spds
  • 2,500 SFRM6 96.31/96.37 call spds ref 96.275
  • +4,500 SFRM6 96.06/96.18/96.31 put flys, .75 ref 96.28
  • 2,000 SFRM6 96.31/96.37/96.43 call flys ref 96.28
  • +4,500 2QJ6 96.62/96.75/96.81 call flys, 3.0 ref 96.52
• Treasury Options: Note, April options expire Fri
  • over 4,500 UXYM6 115 calls ref 113-11
  • 2,900 TYK6 108.5 puts, 14 ref 110-28
  • +5,000 TYJ6 111.75 calls, 4 ref 110-28.5 to -29
  • -1,750 TYK6 109.5/112 strangle, 47
  • over +6,700 FVK6 110.5 calls, 3 ref 108-00.25
  • 3,200 Wed/wkly TY 111.25 calls, 4 (exp today)
  • +2,000 FVK6 108/109/110 call flys, 3.5
  • 3,800 TUJ6 103.87/104.12/104.25/104.37 broken put condors ref 103-19
  • over 8,000 TUJ6 103.5 puts ref 103-18.5 to -18.88
  • 1,500 TYK6 111.5/112.5/113.5 call flys ref 110-24
  • +5,000 FVK6 109/109.5/110 call flys, 3.5 ref 107-30