MNI POLITICAL RISK- GOP Starts Writing Up 'Big Beautiful Bill'

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Executive summary:

• Congress returns today ahead of a hectic month during which Republican committees must write up the text of the ‘big beautiful’ reconciliation bill that will cover the bulk of President Donald Trump’s agenda.
• The Treasury Department is expected to send Congress its X-date projection this week.
• Trump’s approval rating continues to fall at a rate that will flash warning signs for Republican lawmakers facing tight re-election races in 2026. 
• US consumers and businesses are bracing for Trump’s trade war to bite as US ports prepare t receive the first container ships from China to face steep tariffs. 
• US exports of soybeans and pork to China have plunged. Markets will be watching for Trump’s response to any downturn in the agricultural sector in light of a first-term bailout package that nearly matched revenue generated by tariffs.
• The US is unlikely to reach a comprehensive trade deal with South Korea before the country’s presidential election on June 3. 
• The Chinese government continues to deny the existence of trade talks with the US.
• Canadians head to the polls today to vote in a snap general election that has been upended by Trump's trade war and rhetoric towards Canada’s sovereignty. 
• Ukraine’s backers are hoping a tone shift from the Trump administration could open the door for more favourable negotiations with Russia.
• Poll of the Day: A majority of US voters think Trump has exceeded his authority.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF