US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Cracks Emerge In Big Beautiful Bill
Jun-05 12:23
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- President Donald Trump will meet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz today for a bilateral meeting and working lunch. A spray at the top will be Trump’s first press interaction since his bust-up with Elon Musk over the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’.
- Merz is unlikely to be in for an Oval Office 'ambush', but the Trump administration has a long list of grievances with Germany. Merz will tout a pledge to make the Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest army, facilitated by loosening Germany’s restrictive debt brake.
- Staffing shortages at government agencies could impact the accuracy of key data releases.
- The White House sought to discredit a CBO estimate that the GOP megabill will add $2.4 trillion to federal deficits.
- Senate changes to the megabill's provisions on SALT and clean energy credits are likely to complicate final passage in the House.
- Trump suggested that the debt limit could be carved out of the reconciliation package, a move that could buy the GOP more time.
- Trump conceded that a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin would not "lead to immediate Peace". Senator Graham (R-SC) said he will exempt countries that help Ukraine's defence from his sanctions bill, smoothing over some potential objections from Europe.
- Iran’s supreme leader effectively rejected the US nuclear proposal.
- Poll of the Day: The 90-day deadline the Trump administration set itself to negotiate trade deals is a tenth of the time such deals usually take.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump-Carney Bilat To Test Water On Trade
May-06 12:19
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- President Donald Trump will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney today for the first time since his election win. The press spray will be the most closely followed Oval Office event since Trump’s bust-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be grilled on tariffs and the X date during testimony to Congress today on Trump’s FY2026 budget.
- Trump directed officials to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on films produced outside the US. The move could imperil trade talks with movie-making countries and escalate Trump's trade war into services.
- Bessent argued at the Milken Conference that Trump’s trade agenda will make the US economy more appealing for investors.
- EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said Trump’s tariffs would cover 97% of the EU’s total exports to the US.
- House Republicans will hold key meetings today as they continue work towards the ‘big beautiful’ reconciliation bill.
- Israel warns of "conquering" Gaza if a deal isn't struck with Hamas during Trump's Middle East trip next week. A fourth round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place this Sunday.
- VP JD Vance will attend a meeting with European national security officials on Wednesday, organised by the Munich Security Conference, following critical remarks in Munich in February.
- Trump said the sliding price of oil will intensify pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire deal.
- Poll of the Day: Support for Democratic Party drops.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
SONIA: Put spread buyer
May-06 12:09
SFIM5 98.95/95.85ps, bought for 3 in 3k.
GILTS: Early Range In Futures Intact, Curve Twist Steepens
May-06 12:05
There was also a muted reaction in gilts to the latest round of EU-U.S. trade headlines, although fresh weakness in U.S. e-mini futures seems to lend some background support to gilts. Futures remain in the range establish in the first 30 minutes of trade.
- Initial support and resistance of note at 91.73 & 93.93, with this morning’s breach of the 50-DMA providing an extension of the recent bearish impulse in the contract, albeit with the bullish cycle in the contract intact.
- Yields 2bp lower to 3bp higher, curve twist steepens.
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