US: MNI POLITICAL RISK- Conservatives Raise Concerns With Tax Bill
May-28 12:29
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- President Donald Trump will sign Executive Orders at 14:00 ET 19:00 BST. If the press is permitted access, the event will end Trump's longest break from TV cameras since returning to office.
- Vice President JD Vance will address a Bitcoin Conference in Vegas - Another step toward realising Trump’s campaign pledge to make the US a crypto "superpower”.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s job is looking shaky amid reports of instability in the Pentagon.
- The S&P bounced back on trade talk optimism and rising consumer sentiment. JP Morgan downgraded its forecast for a US recession.
- A prominent AI CEO warned that unemployment could spike to 10-20%.
- NEC Director Kevin Hassett indicated countries might expect a 10% baseline tariff if they refrain from retaliatory actions.
- Japan has proposed a semiconductor deal to shrink its trade surplus with the US.
- King Charles III appeared to rebuke Trump’s rhetoric in a speech to open the Canadian Parliament.
- Trump again endorsed ending the conservatorship of Fanny Mae and Fanny Mac.
- Elon Musk panned the Republican reconciliation megabill as concerns grow about the deficit implications of the package.
- Trump could announce a framework for a nuclear deal with Iran this week.
- GOP defence hawks are applying pressure on Trump to approve new Russia sanctions.
- The Trump administration will not renew Chevron’s licence to operate in Venezuela.
- Poll of the Day: Consumers expect decreases in federal benefits, reduced Medicare, and lower taxes.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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Apr-28 12:25
SFIK5 95.85/95.90/96.00/96.05c condor, sold at 2.5 in 2.5k.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK- GOP Starts Writing Up 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Apr-28 12:22
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- Congress returns today ahead of a hectic month during which Republican committees must write up the text of the ‘big beautiful’ reconciliation bill that will cover the bulk of President Donald Trump’s agenda.
- The Treasury Department is expected to send Congress its X-date projection this week.
- Trump’s approval rating continues to fall at a rate that will flash warning signs for Republican lawmakers facing tight re-election races in 2026.
- US consumers and businesses are bracing for Trump’s trade war to bite as US ports prepare to receive the first container ships from China to face steep tariffs.
- US exports of soybeans and pork to China have plunged. Markets will be watching for Trump’s response to any downturn in the agricultural sector in light of a first-term bailout package that nearly matched revenue generated by tariffs.
- The US is unlikely to reach a comprehensive trade deal with South Korea before the country’s presidential election on June 3.
- The Chinese government continues to deny the existence of trade talks with the US.
- Canadians head to the polls today to vote in a snap general election that has been upended by Trump's trade war and rhetoric towards Canada’s sovereignty.
- Ukraine’s backers are hoping a tone shift from the Trump administration could open the door for more favourable negotiations with Russia.
- Poll of the Day: A majority of US voters think Trump has exceeded his authority.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
US SWAPS: J.P.Morgan Recommend 30-Year Swap Spread Wideners With S&P Hedge
Apr-28 12:20
Late on Friday J.P.Morgan recommended “initiating 30-Year swap spread wideners, paired with a risk weighted short in S&P 500 futures.”
- This comes after they turned “bullish on swap spreads given fair value considerations and tariff progress but recommend hedging with S&P 500 futures given the recent correlation of spreads to equities since early April”.
