US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Congress Turns Attention To Govt Funding
Feb-27 13:20
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- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and President Donald Trump may have scored a major win in the House by forcing through a budget blueprint but the more challenging work of drafting a reconciliation package lies ahead.
- Johnson believes he can find a government funding solution without Democrat support - a major break from recent funding cycles.
- 10:00 ET 15:00 GMT: The Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Stephen Miran - a key ideologue of the Trump administration’s trade and economic agenda - to be chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors.
- Trump raised optimism that Mexico and Canada could avoid tariffs on March 4, saying they could take effect on April 2. Trump separately floated a 25% "reciprocal" tariff on European autos and other goods.
- The White House Offices of Management and Budget and Personnel issued a directive to federal departments yesterday mandating layoffs and restructuring of government agencies.
- US and Russian officials met today for a second high-profile diplomatic summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin said this morning that “first contacts” with the Trump administration “inspire hope”.
- Trump will meet bilaterally with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House today.
- The IAEA warned that Iran has "significantly increased" its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
- Poll of the Day: There has been a record surge in Republican satisfaction with the state of the nation.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Longs Evaporate In The New Year
Jan-28 13:19
Europe Pi Positioning Analysis PDF Here
- Structurally long positioning has evaporated across European futures contracts since the beginning of the year.
- At the start of 2025, Gilt and BTP had been in long territory but already showed signs of moving flat.
- Meanwhile, French contracts are even more clearly short than prior, while Germany remains flat/short.
- The most recent week of trade was indicative of short setting and long reduction across most Eurex contracts.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Jan-28 13:15
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.34% (+0.00), volume: $2.338T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32% (-0.01), volume: $899B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.32% (-0.01), volume: $868B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
FOREX: AUDUSD Extends Weekly Decline to 1.2%, Q4 CPI Data Awaited
Jan-28 13:15
- Monday’s risk off session and the more optimistic tone for the US dollar today have prompted AUDUSD to extend its pullback this week. The pair has dropped 1.2% from last Friday’s close, keeping medium term bearish conditions intact.
- Recent gains stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA (intersecting at 0.6325), and the subsequent reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24.
- The NAB Business Survey report was out overnight and highlighted softer wage pressures, with labour cost growth at 1.4%, ahead of key quarterly inflation data scheduled on Wednesday that may prompt the RBA to consider rate cuts. Q4 CPI is expected to show a drop to 2.5% from 2.8% y/y prior. RBA-date OIS is pricing in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut at the Feb meeting, firming 2bps overnight.
- A continuation lower for AUDUSD would bring the focus back on 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.
