MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Held At 4% As Expected

The National Bank of Poland left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4% as expected on Wednesday, the Bank said.

Fiscal policy, an expected recovery of demand and further developments in wage growth, as well as the macroeconomic situation abroad, including changes in global commodity prices and inflation, remain risk factors for the inflation outlook, the bank said.

"Against this background, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged," the NBP said. "Further decisions of the Council will depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity."

Flash estimates suggest annual CPI inflation declined to 2.4% in November 2025 versus 2.8% in October, the NBP said in a statement, with core inflation expected to be similar to 2.7% seen in November. (See MNI NBP WATCH: Wait-And-See Before March Inflation Projections)

Annual GDP growth in Q4 2025 was "probably similar" to Q3's 3.8%, although annual growth of retail sales, industrial output and construction and assembly production all declined in November, the bank said. Labour market data indicate wage growth slowed over last year, it said, amid a fall in employment in the enterprise sector.