MNI NBP Preview - June 2025: Pause Amid Brighter Outlook

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Executive Summary:

• NBP is expected to act on the Governor's forward guidance and stand pat on rates.
• The inflation outlook is more benign but wage growth and retail sales accelerated.
• The MPC is expected to discuss reserve requirement parameters.

The consensus is for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to take a breather after a 50bp cut delivered in May and leave the reference rate unchanged at 5.25%. Although the inflation outlook has become even more benign, robust outturns for wage growth and retail sales may encourage the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) to act on the Governor’s forward guidance and stay put at least until the publication of the next macroeconomic projection in July. However, the panel may debate possible adjustments to the parameters of reserve requirements, which the Governor said would be on the agenda. Looking beyond this meeting, we think that the NBP has room to loosen monetary policy from next month but will fine-tune its pace and scale while paying close attention to wage dynamics and continuously assessing Poland’s fiscal outlook.

For a more detailed briefing on the reserve requirements discussion see our inter-meeting report.