MNI NBP Preview - Dec 2025: Christmas Cut

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP is expected to reduce the reference rate by 25bp to 4%.
• The Governor ruled a December cut in at last month's presser.
• CPI target undershoot and goldilocks data support the case for a cut.

With domestic inflationary pressures cooling despite robust economic growth, we expect the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) to end the year with another sequential 25bp interest-rate ‘adjustment’, in defiance of cautious messaging from some of its members. Inflation marginally undershot the NBP’s target in November amid a further normalisation of underlying price dynamics, with wage growth staying on a downward trajectory. Since Governor Glapiński used his previous press conference to rule a December cut in again, macroeconomic developments provided the MPC plenty of reasons to ‘adjust’ monetary policy settings and bring the reference rate down to 4%.