MNI Labour Market Insight: November 2025 Release

For the full MNI Labour Market Insight document click here.

• The labour market report was soft across the board. We look in the numbers indepth and the near-term implications for Governor Bailey's December MPC vote.
• Private regular pay showed further progress and despite coming in line with the BOE and consensus forecasts on a rounded basis, the single month print was notably lower than expected and momentum continues to soften.
• The unemployment rate was around a tenth higher than expected and has an easy route to reach the peak seen in last week’s MPR projections as soon as next month.
• And the positivity that we have seen in the payrolls prints over the past couple of months has been revised away, with payrolls now also pointing to a softening of the labour market.