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May-23 16:26

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Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 5Y Auction: 11Bp Rich to Last Month Tail

Apr-23 16:22

Tsy futures are well off mid-morning highs (TYM5 currently -.5 at 110-25 vs. 111-18.5 high) ahead of the $70B 5Y note auction (91282CMZ1) at 1300ET, WI is currently running at 3.990%, 11bp rich to last month's tail.

  • March auction recap: Tsys reacted slightly negative, with FVM5 down a tick at 107-20+ after the latest 5Y sale broke a 4-auction streak of trade-throughs, with a 0.5bp tail on a 4.10% high yield vs 4.095% when-issued.
  • The peripheral statistics were on the weak side of recent results: the bid-cover ratio was 2.33x, the lowest in 9 auctions. Dealers took down 13.2% of competitive (5-auction high) / directs 11.0% (5-auction low) / indirects 75.8% (also 5-auction low).

SECURITY: Trump & Vance Take Hard Line On Zelenskyy In Statements On Ukraine War

Apr-23 16:22

US President Donald Trump has issued a lengthy statement on Truth Social suggesting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s refusal to discuss Russian sovereignty over Crimea is “harmful” to peace negotiations. 

  • Trump said, referring to this WSJ article, in which Zelenskyy said Kyiv would never recognize Russian control of Crimea: “This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion.”
  • Trump continued: “The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country.”
  • Trump concluded: “We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS…”
  • Trump’s statement came after US Vice President JD Vance outlined “an American peace proposal that closely mirrors longstanding Russian demands, including a “freeze” of territorial lines in the three-year war, acceptance of the annexation of Crimea by Russia and a prohibition on Ukraine becoming part of the NATO alliance,” per NYT.
  • Vance told reporters in India: “We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say yes or for the United States to walk away from this process,”

JPY: Bessent Won't Seek FX Target in Trade Talks With Japan

Apr-23 16:17
  • Nikkei Newswire cites comments to press in reporting that the US Treasury Secretary Bessent will not seek a currency target in trade talks with Japan.
  • USD/JPY sees brief strength on the headline, touching 142.94, before quickly reversing to prevailing levels. Non-tariff barriers including VAT, currency manipulation and indirect taxes had been a sore point for the US and trade partners, but seemingly currency is not an issue in ongoing negotiations with Japan, which are seen as among the most advanced since the initial unveiling of tariffs a few weeks ago. 

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