MNI INTERVIEW: Trump Effect To Drive EU Bond Futures Growth

Eurex expects its new Euro-EU bond futures to build volume faster than past product launches after what it sees as a solid start, partly as some fixed-income trade leaves the U.S. for Europe, the exchange’s Co-Global Head Derivatives Products and Markets told MNI.

The contract already has 10,000 to 11,000 traded and open interest of around 3,900 with 45 active members overall after a Sept 10 start, Lee Bartholomew said in an interview. 

“We will continue to see that grow as more members and liquidity providers become active - that will accelerate in a positive way,” he said.

“With any of the products we have launched it has taken time for the ecosystem to develop,” he said, but noted that with BTP and OAT contracts already thriving, development is likely to prove faster than in the past. (See MNI INTERVIEW: EU Bond Market Needs More Issuance-ICMA's Hill)

“They took quite some time to evolve. I anticipate that you won't see the lead time as long this time. You can ask me again in two months’ time.” 

In addition, the macroeconomic backdrop is supportive, according to Bartholomew.

TRUMP EFFECT

“The Trump effect is positive for European fixed income, particularly because people are looking at Europe - and that has largely been a fixed income rotation rather than into equities. For the next six months that environment will be supportive for our franchise. These products will benefit from that”. 

The new contract is in line with the Europe Union’s wider push to develop a bigger and more liquid capital market as part of the bloc’s Capital Markets Union project, he says.

“From a macro perspective of the EU it needs depth in capital markets, and it needs initiatives of this kind to help the whole ecosystem. There has been a positive trend on [EU bond] issuance, and I expect that to continue over the medium to long term.” 

Eurex has seen double-digit growth in its fixed income franchise so far in 2025 and liquidity in its core products is solid, Bartholomew said. 

“You've seen the pickup in core products like OATs and BTPs  in August on the back of the political environments and there has been an increase in basis trading with the introduction of EU bond trading. Liquidity has remained robust and solid,” he said.

“What will be interesting will be how people take stock as we head into year end and start to think about what they will allocate into 2026, but for me at this stage we are happy with liquidity and how the business is doing.”