MNI INTERVIEW: China's Pork Prices To Slow Q1, Recover In Q3

China’s pork prices, a significant component of the country’s CPI, are expected to slowly recover through 2026 compared with 2025, following a pattern of early-year weakness, a mid-year bottom and a mild recovery in the second half, a leading pork industry expert and government adviser told MNI, after prices fell 14.6% in 2025 y/y.

“The overall trajectory this year will be lower first, then higher, with a gentle rebound,” said Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst for monitoring and early warning at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. “Prices in Q1 will likely see a phased pullback and, on a year-on-year basis, come in marginally lower."

Zhu noted that pork prices in the first quarter of 2025 were already elevated by historical standards, with the quarterly average reaching CNY16.03 per kilogram, up 7.4% from 2024. Commercial hog supply will remain ample in early 2026, while the Spring Festival falling about 20 days later than usual will see demand relatively more dispersed. Warm winter conditions are also likely to suppress traditional cured-meat consumption in southern China, he said.

“Pre-holiday stockpiling will offer some temporary support,” Zhu continued. “But once the holiday passes, consumption will enter the off-season, weakening demand and dragging prices lower.”

Pork prices represent a significant component of China's CPI calculation, making up near 8-10% of the food category, which is estimated to comprise about 35% of the total metric. Last year, Zhu accurately forecast the year-on-year downturn in pork prices in the second half of 2025, after an initially strong performance. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: China CPI’s Pork Support)

LATER SUPPORT

Zhu Zengyong stated that since July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has begun to decline and has accelerated its contraction after October. In December 2025, the breeding sow inventory stood at 39.61 million head, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 million head, or a decline of 2.9%. However, pork prices have yet to respond meaningfully due to transmission lags, ample supply and limited demand momentum, Zhu noted.

“There is a clear lag effect between changes in the breeding sow inventory and trends in hog prices,” Zhu added. “The previous capacity expansion is still exerting downward pressure on the market.” Because it typically takes around 10 months for shifts in sow inventories to affect slaughter volumes, Zhu expects the impact of recent capacity cuts to become visible around the third quarter of 2026.

He said tightening supply should begin to show up in prices between late Q2 and early Q3, when fewer fattened hogs reach the market in the second half of 2026. “With demand remaining stable, prices should rise moderately and the industry is likely to swing back into profitability,” Zhu said. However, if the rebound proves too weak, authorities may step in to stabilise the market through targeted measures.

“These could include increasing the frequency and scale of central and local frozen pork purchases to bolster confidence,” he said. “Policymakers may also encourage the exit of inefficient producers rather than directly cutting sow numbers, while strengthening monitoring and early-warning systems to prevent excessive swings.”