MNI Global Week Ahead: US CPI In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - China Data
The key data releases out next week in China include aggregate financing/new loans and trade data. In 2025, China's credit growth was characterized by resilient government-led financing (aggregate financing) and weak private-sector demand (new yuan loans). December forecasts are showing a divergent trend between broad aggregate financing and traditional bank lending. Whilst traditional bank lending is sluggish, record government bond issuance, which local governments have used for infrastructure and debt resolution continues to see total aggregate financing strong as fiscal policy remains proactive. New bank lending has remained subdued throughout 2025, consistently missing market expectations due to a cooling property sector and cautious household spending. There is some expectations for an increase in December (forecast CNY 16,160.5bn from CNY15,361bn) but the increases are modest when base effects are considered.
China's trade data is also released and forecast to show resilience in December. Exports have been volatile in 2025 given the trade war and uncertainty leading into the Trump Xi meeting in Korea. Having peaked ahead of the leader's meeting with a September expansion of 8.2%, exports contracted in October modestly before jumping by 5.2% in November. The forecast of 3.0% for December would represent a resilient end to the year for exports. Most closely watched will be destination data with stronger growth to non-US destinations. If the forecast is correct, it would see full year exports of just over 5% for the full year. Imports are expected to moderate further into year end with a consensus of 0.8% and a modest expansion for the full year, punctuated by four months of contracting imports.
TUESDAY - US December CPI Inflation
Inflation is set to pick up on a sequential basis in December (out January 13 at 0830ET) from November's suspiciously weak price prints, with early consensus pointing to 0.3 to 0.4% M/M rises in both headline and core CPI after an average increase of 0.1% M/M over November and October. However, distortions mean that an inflation acceleration in December shouldn't be taken at face value. Few analysts took the shutdown-delayed October/November report either literally or seriously, given the unusual data collection period (incorporating late November holiday discounting in key goods categories) and "carry-forward imputation" due to the cancellation of the October survey (which for one thing meant October inflation was assumed to be zero in housing, which is the largest CPI category).
The unwinding of these distortions mean that the December core CPI readings are likewise set to see some upside payback on a M/M basis, and as a result the details are set to be met with some skepticism once again. The most obvious upward distortion will be in categories that reflected discounting in late November but will see price bounces in December (including airfares and apparel). It will also impact the many price categories that are calculated on a bimonthly basis that won't have an October to compare to, meaning that their inflation rates could be exaggerated to the upside as the BLS resorts to a comparison to the previous bimonthly period (ie a 4-month price change vs August). Due to methodological reasons, a "payback" effect is not expected to affect the key housing CPI categories until April 2026, however. All of the above means that reading the details of the report will be even more critical than usual, and any extreme results are likely to be downplayed.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision
Governor Adam Glapiński’s forward guidance indicated that the central bank would likely pause policy action and move into ‘wait-and-see’ mode at the start of 2026 before considering further easing. While this remains our base case, benign preliminary CPI data for December, showing headline inflation slipping below the +2.5% y/y target, could prompt some policymakers to weigh the merits of a front-loaded rate cut.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision
The Bank of Korea meets January 15 in what is widely anticipated to be a non-event. Growth is firming and the heat has yet to come out of the housing market. Current GDP growth forecasts have been revised up for 2026 to around 2.1%, even despite the tariffs from the US as the AI/tech boom continues. The implementation of various policies to cool the property markets has not seen a drop in mortgage lending and has continued to rise; and would be a major input into a decision to remain at 2.5%. The Won's troubles are not over but since the expansion by the BOK of various policies to support the currency, it has rallied 1.7% (at today's levels) though since the end of December has weakened again. KRW swaps markets continue to price out cuts, with the back end of 2026 pricing in some potential hikes. We see the BOK on hold for some time until signs that the property sector is cooling and the currency stabilizing.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 12/01/2026 | 0001/0001 |  GB | KPMG-REC Report on Jobs | |
| 12/01/2026 | 0850/0950 |  EU | ECB de Guindos Fireside Chat at Instituto Español de Analistas | |
| 12/01/2026 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 12/01/2026 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 12/01/2026 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 12/01/2026 | 1730/1230 |  US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 12/01/2026 | 1745/1245 | US | Richond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 12/01/2026 | 2300/1800 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 13/01/2026 | 2350/0850 |  JP | Balance of Payments | |
| 13/01/2026 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 13/01/2026 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watcher's Survey | |
| 13/01/2026 | 0745/0845 |  FR | Budget Balance | |
| 13/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 13/01/2026 | 1100/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 13/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 13/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 13/01/2026 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 13/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 13/01/2026 | 1900/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/01/2026 | 2100/1600 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 14/01/2026 | 0800/0800 | GB | BOE Taylor Speech at National University of Singapore | |
| 14/01/2026 | 0820/0920 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Spain Investors Day | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 14/01/2026 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 14/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 14/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | US | Current Account Balance |
| 14/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 14/01/2026 | 1450/0950 | US | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 14/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 14/01/2026 | 1500/1000 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1530/1530 | GB | BOE Ramsden at King's College London on Resolution | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1700/1200 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1700/1200 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 14/01/2026 | 1910/1410 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 15/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | * |  DE | Wholesale Prices |
| 15/01/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/01/2026 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 15/01/2026 | 0930/0930 | GB | BOE Credit Conditions Survey | |
| 15/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 15/01/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/01/2026 | 1000/0500 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/01/2026 | 1100/1200 | IT | Foreign Trade | |
| 15/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 15/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/01/2026 | 1335/0835 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 15/01/2026 | 1415/0915 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 15/01/2026 | 1740/1240 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 15/01/2026 | 1830/1330 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 15/01/2026 | 2100/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 16/01/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 16/01/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/01/2026 | 1315/0815 | ** | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/01/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 16/01/2026 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 16/01/2026 | 1600/1100 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 16/01/2026 | 2030/1530 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson |
