MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Data In Focus

Jul-11 18:56By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

TUESDAY - China Q2 Data

China June trade activity is expected to show some improvement, as US-China trade tensions softened as we progressed through Q2. GDP growth is forecast to remain around 5%y/y. We also have the June monthly activity figures out. Focus will be on break down of activity outcomes, in terms of consumer spending and industrial activity. Property market indicators are expected to remain weak.

TUESDAY - Canada June CPI

The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of Canadian CPI (Core Trim and Median) are expected to remain steady at 3.0% Y/Y in June. If those estimates prove correct, inflation is set to remain at the top end of the BOC's target range. That would further dissuade the BOC from a rate cut on July 30, which already appears to be a marginal proposition following an unexpectedly strong June labour market report.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US June CPI and PPI

June CPI is the highlight of next week's US data slate, with MNI's early roundup of analyst expectations showing an anticipated acceleration in the main measures of inflation. Both core and headline CPI are seen rising to the mid 0.20s% M/M, from May's readings of 0.13% for core and 0.08% for headline. Such outturns would mean the strongest M/M headline CPI since January, with core continuing to range between 0.0-0.3% for a 5th consecutive month. They would also bring the Y/Y core reading to 2.9% or 3.0%, with headline at 2.6% or 2.7% (both would be 4-month highs). The first area of focus will be on core goods prices, with the impact of import tariffs expected to become more acute as the summer progresses: core goods are seen up from May's flat M/M reading to closer to 0.2%. Core services are seen picking up modestly from 0.2% M/M in May to closer to 0.3%, with May's relatively tame housing inflation steady-to-higher. "Supercore" (core services ex-housing) is expected to rise from May's surprisingly low sub-0.1% M/M print to closer to 0.3%. It's unlikely that a downside surprise would persuade the Federal Reserve to seriously consider cutting rates in July, given the expected pickup in tariff-related prices in coming months, but it would certainly help lay the groundwork for a resumption of easing in September, particularly if PCE is confirmed to be tame (PPI will refine the post-CPI estimate).

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Mansion House Speech / CPI / Labour Market Data

It's another packed week for the UK with Mansion House speeches, inflation and labour market data all due for release. The Mansion House speeches will see both Chancellor Reeves and Governor Bailey speak. Bailey has spoken a fair amount recently so not much new on monetary policy is expected from him, while Reeves had been expected to outline a consultation on ISA reform (tax free savings accounts) but the latest media reports suggest that this plan has been shelved. An early consensus sees both headline and core CPI expected to remain unchanged from May levels at 3.4%Y/Y and 3.5%Y/Y respectively - which would be a little above the BOE's forecast for headline and a little below for core. At a more granular level food prices are expected to remain much stronger than the BOE's forecast - and to offset slightly softer core prices. Labour market data will be watched to see whether wage growth slows as much as expected - and HMRC payrolls data will continue to be watched after being mentioned in the June MPC Minutes. These will be the last inflation and labour market readings ahead of the August MPC meeting.

WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)

Sell-side economists are close to evenly split between whether BI will cut rates by 25bps next week, or hold steady at 5.50%. Lower USD/IDR levels should present less of a headwind to easing, particularly compared to earlier in the year, whilst the domestic bias is for easier policy settings. The central bank may want to wait and see a more dovish Fed outlook, but on balance we don't think this will prevent a rate cut, although it is a close call.

FRIDAY - Japan June CPI

Partial indicators, like this week's PPI print along with the earlier June Tokyo CPI, point to some loss of momentum for nationwide CPI. Y/Y outcomes are still expected to print comfortably above 3%. The data is likely to add to the case for a steady near term BoJ outlook.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
14/07/2025	2301/0001	**	GB	KPMG/REC Jobs Report
14/07/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
14/07/2025	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
14/07/2025	0600/0800	***	SE	Final Inflation Report
14/07/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
14/07/2025	-	***	CN	Money Supply
14/07/2025	-	***	CN	New Loans
14/07/2025	-	***	CN	Social Financing
14/07/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
14/07/2025	1500/1700		EU	ECB Cipollone At EU Parliament
14/07/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
14/07/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/07/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
15/07/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	GDP
15/07/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/07/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
15/07/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
15/07/2025	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/07/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	HICP (f)
15/07/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Industrial Production
15/07/2025	0900/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
15/07/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
15/07/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
15/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	CPI
15/07/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
15/07/2025	1300/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/07/2025	1315/0915		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
15/07/2025	1645/1245		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
15/07/2025	1845/1445		US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
15/07/2025	2000/2100		GB	Mansion House: Chancellor Reeves and BOE Bailey
15/07/2025	2245/1845		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
16/07/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Consumer inflation report
16/07/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	HICP (f)
16/07/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
16/07/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
16/07/2025	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	PPI
16/07/2025	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
16/07/2025	1315/0915		US	Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
16/07/2025	1400/1000		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
16/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
16/07/2025	1800/1400		US	Fed Beige Book
16/07/2025	2230/1830		US	New York Fed's John Williams
17/07/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
17/07/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market Survey
17/07/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	HICP (f)
17/07/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/07/2025	-		EU	ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting
17/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
17/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
17/07/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
17/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
17/07/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
17/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
17/07/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
17/07/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
17/07/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
17/07/2025	1400/1000		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
17/07/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
17/07/2025	1645/1245		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
17/07/2025	1730/1330		US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
17/07/2025	2000/1600	**	US	TICS
17/07/2025	2230/1830		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
18/07/2025	2330/0830	***	JP	CPI
18/07/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	PPI
18/07/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
18/07/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Construction Production
18/07/2025	-		EU	ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting
18/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
18/07/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Housing Starts
18/07/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
18/07/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
18/07/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
18/07/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly