MNI Global Week Ahead: UK Data, RBNZ, and US GDP/PCE Due
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY / FRIDAY - Japan Q4 GDP and January Inflation
Q4 GDP is forecast to have rebounded, with negative drags in Q3 from business spending and net exports expected to have switched back to positive contributions. Focus will also be on consumer spending, which has remained modestly positive in recent quarters. Given the LDP's strong victory in last weekend's elections, the growth outlook could improve, although the authorities this week have stated they will maintain fiscal discipline. headline CPI is projected at 1.5%y/y (from 2.1% prior). Core measures are also expected to moderate, although they are forecast to remain above 2%y/y.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - UK December/January Labour Market and January Inflation Data
The week ahead will see key labour market, inflation and flash PMI data released in the UK as well as retail sales and public finance data. We don't expect any of these releases to be included in the Spring Statement forecasts (which usually close around 21 working days ahead of publication and would have broadly meant that no data released in February will be included).
Markets are broadly in line with BOE forecasts for labour market data with the Bank looking for private regular wage growth of 3.43%Y/Y in Q4 (down from its previous forecast of 3.51%) and expect the unemployment rate to remain broadly stable at 5.11%. We think that if data comes in broadly in line pricing for a March cut will increase further.
UK CPI is expected to move lower in January, with the February MPR looking for a print of 2.90%Y/Y and an early consensus looking for 3.0%Y/Y (down from 3.37%Y/Y in December). In terms of BOE expectations around 2 tenths of the decrease are expected from services and around a tenth from each of food and energy. On the services side, air fares are expected to reverse some of December's strong gain while base effects from the introduction of VAT on private school fees in January 2025 will drop out of the Y/Y comparison. Energy is largely expected to fall due to the quarterly electricity and gas price cap while the Agents' survey in February noted that food prices appear to have peaked (although there was a strong showing for food prices in the BRC Shop Price Index albeit the survey dates don't align). The CPI print will also see the introduction of new weights. This will be the last CPI print to be released ahead of the March MPC meeting and if CPI comes in line with the Bank's forecast that would be another hurdle out of the way for a cut.
TUESDAY - Canada January Inflation Data
Underlying inflation is expected to remain on a downward trend in January's CPI report (Tuesday, 830ET), though headline will see some upward pressures largely as a result of base effects. MNI's analyst median is for a 2.5% Y/Y headline CPI rate, which would represent a modest uptick from the 2.36% reading in December. More closely eyed will be the trim/median average which printed 2.60% Y/Y in December, but is expected to dip to 2.55% in January. Put another way, the January report is largely expected to resemble the prior release in December in which it appeared that headline/core prices were on the warmer side, but as the Bank of Canada subsequently noted, underlying gauges suggested "continued easing in core inflation". An as-expected January report won't do much to dampen market-implied potential for a BOC rate hike by near-end, but by the same token it won't take a cut off the table either.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision
The RBNZ is seen firmly on hold next week, keeping the policy rate at 2.25%. This will be the first decision for new Governor Anna Breman. The next move in rates clearly looks higher though. Growth indicators are pointing to an improving outlook, while inflation expectations are also ticking higher, albeit still under the top end of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band. Still, the central bank looks to have time on its hands given spare capacity in the economy. The recent jobs data showed a further edge up in the unemployment rate. Market pricing, per OIS markets, has a full hike nearly priced by the Oct meeting.
WEDNESDAY - FOMC Minutes
Within the minutes to the January Fed meeting (Wednesday, 1400ET), we will be looking for the Committee's discussion of the latest data which raised the bar to further easing, given Chair Powell's press conference comment that "I think—and many of my colleagues think—it’s hard to look at the incoming data and say that policy’s significantly restrictive at this time." Additionally, we know that there were two dissenters to the rate hold (Govs Miran and Waller in favor of a 25bp cut), but we wonder whether there were any others who were considering joining them at this juncture. Finally, any discussion on reserve management purchase strategy would be of interest, with the Committee previously having said that it would "significantly" reduce the $40B/monthly pace in bill purchases after the mid-April tax season has concluded.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q4 GDP and December PCE
The coming week’s major US data releases are backloaded, with the advance Q4 national accounts release and December personal income and outlays report both at 0830ET on Friday. Analysts currently eye a 2.8% annualized increase for real GDP growth in Q4 in the still early days for the Bloomberg survey. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow meanwhile is stronger despite recently being trimmed to 3.7% (-0.5pps) after a soft retail sales report. Some moderation in GDP growth is expected therefore after the 4.4% in Q3 and 3.8% in Q2, but it’s still a robust pace. However, domestic demand is tracking at a softer 2.3% annualized according to GDPNow, with solid contributions from both inventories and net exports making up the difference. On the latter, Thursday’s advance goods trade update for December could see a final tweak in GDP estimates after recent volatility. As for specifics within the PCE report, latest momentum in broader goods and services consumption will be watched after soft retail sales data. Core PCE inflation is expected to be on the strong side, with analyst unrounded estimates on balance eyeing a slightly ‘low’ 0.4% M/M. In terms of inflation pressures when thinking about subsequent nominal numbers, they could have remained firm in January as well, with an admittedly unusually wide range of 0.19-0.49% M/M for core PCE inflation seen after the January CPI report.
Emerging Markets
Click here for the MNI LatAm Week Ahead document
Click here for the MNI CEEMEA Week Ahead document
THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its upcoming Monetary Board meeting on 19 February. GDP growth slowed to 3.0% in the final quarter of 2025, bringing the full-year figure to 4.4%, well below the government's 5.5%–6.5% target. Whilst January inflation inched up to 2.0% from 1.8% in December, it remains at the bottom of the BSP's 2%–4% target range, providing ample "policy space" for a cut. BSP Governor Remolona has indicated that the easing cycle is "nearing its end," with any further moves beyond February being strictly data-dependent. We expect the BSP to cut and to move to a more neutral outlook for rates.
We see Bank Indonesia (BI) on hold next week given the focus on the transmission mechanism for interest rates, rising inflation and the ongoing challenges for the Rupiah. The BI is continuing to monitor the effectiveness of its cumulative 150 basis points of cuts delivered since September 2024, noting that bank lending rates have been slow to follow. During that same period, bank lending rates have fallen just 20bps. The competition for deposits remains high whilst appetite for new loans from customers is tepid. In an effort to force rates down, BI introduced a new policy effective 1 December 2025. It provides additional liquidity incentives (a further 50 bps reduction in reserve requirements) specifically for banks that commit to lowering their lending rates. The Rupiah has depreciated roughly -0.85%% YTD driven by global financial market volatility, U.S. policy shifts and equity outflows from foreign investors. The BI continues to support the Rupiah (almost daily) but the negative momentum at present makes it challenging for a rate cut. The BI’s target corridor of 2.5% ± 1% sees the January print of 3.55% (highest since May 2023) above the top end of the range and enough of a concern to see the BI on hold at the February meeting.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 14/02/2026 | 1630/1730 |  EU | ECB Lagarde Roundtable on Trade Dependencies and Global Supply Chains | |
| 15/02/2026 | 0930/1030 | EU | ECB Lagarde Panel on European Competitiveness | |
| 16/02/2026 | 2350/0850 | *** |  JP | GDP |
| 16/02/2026 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 16/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Unemployment |
| 16/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 16/02/2026 | - | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at Eurogroup meeting | |
| 16/02/2026 | 1315/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/02/2026 | 1325/0825 |  US | Fed's Michelle Bowman | |
| 16/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** |  GB | Labour Market |
| 17/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** |  DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 17/02/2026 | 0900/1000 |  IT | Foreign Trade | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 17/02/2026 | - | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 17/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 17/02/2026 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 17/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/02/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 17/02/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 17/02/2026 | 1745/1245 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 17/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 17/02/2026 | 1930/1430 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 18/02/2026 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 18/02/2026 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly wage price index |
| 18/02/2026 | 0100/1400 | *** |  NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 18/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer Inflation Report (1dp) |
| 18/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 18/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 18/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | EU | ECB Cipollone at ABI's Executive Committee Meeting | |
| 18/02/2026 | 1000/0500 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 18/02/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 18/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 18/02/2026 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 18/02/2026 | 1700/1800 | EU | ECB Schnabel Panel at Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities | |
| 18/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 18/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | US | Fed's Michelle Bowman | |
| 18/02/2026 | 1900/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Minutes |
| 18/02/2026 | 2100/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 19/02/2026 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 19/02/2026 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 19/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Construction Output |
| 19/02/2026 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 19/02/2026 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB Cipollone on Digital Euro at Italian Senate | |
| 19/02/2026 | 1130/1230 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Chamber of Commerce Valencia-Andersen Event | |
| 19/02/2026 | 1320/0820 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 19/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | US | Fed's Michelle Bowman | |
| 19/02/2026 | 1400/0900 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 19/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 19/02/2026 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 19/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond |
| 20/02/2026 | 2200/0900 | *** | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 19/02/2026 | 2200/1700 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 20/02/2026 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 20/02/2026 | 0000/0100 | EU | ECB Lagarde Award Acceptance Speech at Columbia Law School | |
| 20/02/2026 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 20/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 20/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 20/02/2026 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 20/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
| 20/02/2026 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 20/02/2026 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 20/02/2026 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 20/02/2026 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 20/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | GDP / PCE Quarterly |
| 20/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 20/02/2026 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 20/02/2026 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 20/02/2026 | 1445/0945 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 20/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 20/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 20/02/2026 | 1745/1245 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan |
