MNI Global Week Ahead - Trump Inauguration In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY - US President-elect Trump Inauguration
On Monday, US President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. The market could experience significant turbulence if Trump follows through with plans to sign up to 100 executive orders on Day 1, by far the largest raft of actions ever taken by a new president. Executive orders could cover a range of issue on the economy and energy, but border security and immigration-related orders are likely to make up the bulk of Day 1 actions. The market will be most sensitive to any order related to the imposition of new tariffs. Trump could feasibly impose new tariffs on Day 1, by invoking authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. See here for a full inauguration day schedule.
MONDAY / TUESDAY - BOC Surveys and Canada Dec CPI
The Canadian macro week is front-loaded, with the Bank of Canada’s closely watched business and consumer surveys for Q4 on Monday (BOS/CSCE) before CPI for December on Tuesday. Retail sales follows on Thursday but those Mon/Tue releases will mainly set the tone heading towards the BoC decision on Jan 29 with a 20bp cut currently priced. Of course, any US tariff and retaliation headlines following President-elect Trump’s inauguration also on Monday will be an additional key factor at play. As it is, early days for consensus puts headline CPI at 1.8% Y/Y in Dec after 1.9% and core CPI at 2.5% Y/Y after 2.65%. Ahead of fresh BoC forecasts on Jan 29, it leaves headline set to undershoot BoC forecasts for Q4 (1.9% vs 2.1%) but with core overshooting (2.6% vs 2.3). Along with this likely overshoot for core, we'll also watch recent run rates with the three-month at 3.3% annualized and six-month at 2.8% back in November. The former was above the 1-3% target band for the first time since January.
TUESDAY / FRIDAY - UK Nov/Dec Labour Market And Jan Flash PMIs
UK labour market data for Nov/Dec and flash PMI data for January are both due for release next week. Increasingly the dovish and centrist members of the MPC are focusing more on growth data and deemphasising labour market data. We (and the market) still pay attention to the wage data in particular and are concerned it may increase more than the Bank estimates in H1-25, albeit we do see increased risks of downside growth shocks putting some downside pressure on wages. In many ways the PMI data will be more important next week (and the market may even pay more attention to the LFS data than wage data) – at present the market is so focused on any metric that indicates the UK economy may be slowing and the risks posed to both growth and the fiscal side that downside surprises could see asymmetrically larger moves.
WEDNESDAY - NZ Q4 CPI
Q4 CPI is expected to show headline inflation holding close to 2% y/y. Focus will be on the split between tradeables and non-tradables inflation. Tradables is expected to rise after a fourth quarter run of falls. Non-tradables, which is more linked to the domestic economy/services is expected to slip under 1.0% q/q, providing some offset. This past week RBNZ easing priced by the market has been scaled back, with some sentiment indicators pointing to a better economic outlook for 2025.
THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision
Norges Bank is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 4.50% on Thursday. At the December decision, the bank signalled that the policy rate would most likely be cut at the March meeting, which includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. There has not been enough new information to shift consensus away from this guidance. The December inflation report only delivered a small downward surprise relative to Norges Bank and analyst projections, while the NOK effective exchange rate has strengthened since the December decision.
FRIDAY - BOJ Decision
The BoJ board will consider hiking the policy rate to 0.5% when it meets next week due to strong wage growth momentum, but it is likely to see no issue in holding the rate steady should market volatility increase following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20, That said, OIS market expectations indicate: an 88% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 92% chance by March; and a full 25bp increase fully priced in by May 2025 (105%).
FRIDAY - Eurozone Jan Flash PMIs
The Eurozone data calendar is headlined by the January flash PMIs on Friday. Consensus expects the Eurozone composite PMI little changed at 49.7 (vs 49.6 in December). The manufacturing component is expected to improve slightly to 45.5 (vs 45.1 prior), while services is seen at 51.5 (vs 51.6 prior). At a country level, small composite improvements are expected in Germany (cons 48.3 vs 48.0 prior) and France (cons 47.7 vs 47.5 prior). The PMIs will be one of the few signals of economic activity ahead of the ECB's Jan 30 decision, with Q4 flash GDP data not due until the morning of the rate announcement. While very unlikely to shift consensus away from a 25bp cut in January, the PMIs will help set the tone for sentiment heading into 2025, with questions still remaining around the likely pace and magnitude of ECB rate cuts later this year. The flash PMI survey period usually closes 2 business days before the release date, so the January data may capture any fallout from US President-elect Trump's inauguration on Monday. This will be a key focus, particularly in the manufacturing surveys given looming tariff threats.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)
Bank Negara Malaysia meets for the first time this year on Wednesday. The Q4 GDP print does not represent an alarm bell for the BNM to cut rates, but they will be conscious of some data slowing. With limited cuts priced into the bond market for 2025 (one cut) relative to regional peers, there is policy flexibility. What is likely from next week’s meeting is the BNM remains on hold, whilst highlighting the risks (particularly from tariffs), thereby leaving the door open for cuts some time later in the year.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is widely expected to deliver another 250bp rate cut - taking the one-week repo rate to 45% - after it started its easing cycle last month while switching to a meeting-by-meeting approach. Inflation data supports another easing step in January while comments from central bank officials have largely supported market rate cut expectations.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 20/01/2025 | 2350/0850 | * |  JP | Machinery orders |
| 20/01/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 20/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Construction Production |
| 20/01/2025 | - | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting | |
| 20/01/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** |  CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 21/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** |  GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 21/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 21/01/2025 | - | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 21/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 21/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 21/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 21/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 21/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 21/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 22/01/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | CPI inflation quarterly |
| 22/01/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22/01/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 22/01/2025 | 0700/1500 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 22/01/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 22/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 22/01/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 22/01/2025 | 1515/1615 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in dialogue on Unlocking Europes potential | |
| 22/01/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 22/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 23/01/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Trade |
| 23/01/2025 | - |  NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 23/01/2025 | - | JP | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
| 23/01/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 23/01/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/01/2025 | 1100/0600 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 23/01/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 23/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 23/01/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23/01/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 23/01/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 23/01/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 23/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 24/01/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/01/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 24/01/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24/01/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/01/2025 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 24/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 24/01/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
| 24/01/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 24/01/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/01/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/01/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/01/2025 | 1000/1100 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in dialogue on the global economic outlook | |
| 24/01/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 24/01/2025 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel discussion on the effects of CB digital currencies | |
| 24/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 24/01/2025 | 1330/0830 | CA | StatsCan Labour Force Survey: Revisions, 1987 to 2024 | |
| 24/01/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24/01/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/01/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 24/01/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 24/01/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
