MNI Global Week Ahead - Speakers, Inflation and CB Decisions
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
THROUGH THE WEEK - BOE MPC Speakers
Five of the nine MPC members will make public appearances next week (including Governor Bailey). On Monday at 11:00GMT Taylor will take part in a fireside chat at Deutsche Bank. It is well known his views are on the dovish side and he has also referenced 3% as his neutral estimate, most recently in the February Minutes, so this is unlikely to be market moving.
Tuesday afternoon (14:15GMT) will see Governor Bailey, Pill, Taylor and Greene all testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with respect to the February MPR. There will also be annual reports published by Bailey, Greene and Pill. The main focus here will be on Bailey's views (we will have already heard from Pill this week and Taylor the preceding day while Greene is expected to remain on the hawkish side). We will be looking for how the Governor characterises the recent labour and inflation data and whether he provides any concrete hints or guidance as to whether he will support a March cut or not. Note that he said it was close to 50/50 following the MPR ahead of these data releases.
Lombardelli will then give opening remarks to the Women in Economics Networking Event at 9:00GMT on Thursday. Pill will conclude MPC appearances for the week on Friday in a SPE event alongside Harvard's Rogoff on "UK and US Economics". Next week's MPC appearances follow this week's podcast appearance from Mann where she continued to remain on the dovish side (particularly noting the good news on goods and food inflation) and cementing her swing voter status alongside Governor Bailey
WEDNESDAY - Australia January Inflation
January monthly CPI prints next Wednesday. The consensus looks for a slight downmove in headline CPI to 3.7%y/y (from 3.8%) but trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred underlying inflation measure is expected to be steady at 3.3%. The monthly CPI series remains fairly new from a time series standpoint and the RBA is still likely to place greater weight on the quarterly inflation prints. The Q1 print isn't out until April 29. Still, the January figures will be eyed for any signs of persistent inflation pressures. The RBA is watching such trends closely to determine whether and/or by how much they need to tighten policy rates further to ensure inflation returns to the 2-3% target.
WEDNESDAY / FRIDAY - Eurozone Final January and Country-level Flash February Inflation
The Eurozone final January inflation report will be released on Friday. Focus will be on the extent to which aggregate services disinflation (flash 3.21% Y/Y vs 3.42% prior) was driven by start-of-year price resets. Flash February data for France, Spain and Germany follows shortly after on Friday, with the Eurozone-wide reading due on Tuesday, March 3. Start of year price changes also tend to be prevalent in February, so it will be interesting to see in January's momentum extends at all. The ECB is cognizant of lingering downside inflation risks for this year, with markets still pricing around a ~30% implied probability of another cut this cycle. That said, the bar to another rate cut is still high.
Summarising early consensus expectations across countries: In France, HICP inflation is expected to rise to 0.7% Y/Y from 0.4% prior, driven by a base effect driven rise in energy and a rebound in goods (due to differences in the number of sales days between 2025 and 2026). In Spain, headline inflation is expected at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior). Meanwhile in Germany, headline HICP is seen steady at 2.1% Y/Y - focus here will be on whether there is continued disinflation in services after some solid underlying progress in January.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision
The Bank of Korea meeting will be more of the same with no change to base rates and the focus remaining on the Won and taking the heat out of the housing sector. Despite recent cooling measures, underlying demand in the Seoul metropolitan housing market remains robust. The board is wary that easing monetary policy prematurely could reignite real estate speculation and exacerbate high household debt. BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong has expressed concern that further rate cuts could trigger additional won weakness and import-led inflation. Whilst we expect no change from the BOK, the central bank will release its updated economic outlook. Markets will focus on whether the bank adjusts its 2026 GDP growth forecast, currently set at 1.8%. Several institutions, including the IMF and KDI, have recently issued slightly more optimistic projections of 1.9% to 2.0%
FRIDAY - Japan February Tokyo CPI
The February Tokyo CPI is expected to continue recent trends. Y/Y headline is forecast at 1.4% (prior was 1.5%), while the ex fresh food measure is seen at 1.7%y/y (prior 2.0%). The core measure, which also excludes energy, is projected at 2.3% (prior 2.4%). Government subsidies in the energy sector will be impacting, but the core measures which exclude this impact, have still softened in recent months. The nationwide services CPI y/y (up to Jan) showed a steady 1.4% trend. This suggests the BoJ still has time on its hands to assess inflation risks before likely tightening rates further. IP growth is expected to be firm in Jan, amid better export growth and the continued trend move higher in the PMI.
FRIDAY - US January PPI
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead for US data, with the highlight being the delayed January PPI report on Friday. This should help shore up core PCE tracking after strong implied readings following the January CPI, unusually because of particularly strong for legal services (which must be backed out from the miscellaneous personal services category rather than having a separate CPI series). We think focus should be twofold: on broad core PPI pressures after a robust 0.36% M/M and 3.50% Y/Y back in December plus the usual core PCE specific components such as airfares, health services and portfolio management & investment advice. Away from PPI, mention also goes to the MNI Chicago PMI for February and the Conference Board consumer survey. The MNI Chicago PMI gave a strong lead before last month’s surprisingly strong increase in the ISM manufacturing survey. The labor differential within the Conference Board survey meanwhile has been continuing to deteriorate and points to a notable upward trend in the unemployment rate in contrast to the recent push lower seen in official BLS data to January (bearing in mind the February BLS payrolls report follows on March 7).
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - PBOC LPR Decision (China)
In the first major data release post Lunar New Year, the PBOC is expected to keep Loan Prime Rates steady, having last cut in April. Expectations are growing for some policy announcements following the annual plenary sessions in Beijing that begin in March. Over the last year the 7-day reverse repo has become the primary focus for the PBOC and currently a cut in LPR is not in focus. A growing consensus is for the next move to be a reduction in the RRR from 9% to 8.50% to provide further liquidity to the system.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to reduce the base rate for the first time since September 2024. The decisive CPI print for January came in below expectations, setting the stage for the beginning of the long-anticipated easing cycle. Central bank officials have indicated in the past that services inflation in particular is important for the trajectory of monetary policy, so the soft reading for this component, as well as the plunge in the headline figure, should provide policymakers with the confidence to proceed with rate cuts – albeit the meeting-by-meeting approach is expected to be maintained for future decisions.
WEDNESDAY - BOT Decision (Thailand)
The Bank of Thailand decision next week is set to be a close call. With growth moderating, below target inflation and a strong Baht the BOT has the opportunity to cut rates. However with the BOT base rate at 1.25% , below 5-year averages, the BOT may elect to wait until further government policy announcements have been made.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 23/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** |  DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 23/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 23/02/2026 | 1100/1100 |  GB | BOE Taylor Fireside Chat at Deutsche Bank | |
| 23/02/2026 | 1400/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 23/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** |  US | Factory New Orders |
| 23/02/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 23/02/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 23/02/2026 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 23/02/2026 | 1730/1830 |  EU | ECB Lagarde Award Acceptance Speech at NABE Economic Policy Conference, Washington DC | |
| 24/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 24/02/2026 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/02/2026 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 24/02/2026 | 1300/0800 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 24/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 24/02/2026 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 24/02/2026 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 24/02/2026 | 1400/0900 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 24/02/2026 | 1415/1415 | GB | BOE Bailey, Greene, Pill, Taylor Testify at TSC on MPR | |
| 24/02/2026 | 1415/1415 | GB | BOE Bailey, Greene, Pill Annual Reports | |
| 24/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 24/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 24/02/2026 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 24/02/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 24/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 25/02/2026 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 25/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 25/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) |
| 25/02/2026 | 0700/1500 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 25/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 25/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 25/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 25/02/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 25/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Capital and repair expenditure survey |
| 25/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
| 25/02/2026 | 1435/0935 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 25/02/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 25/02/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 25/02/2026 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 25/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 25/02/2026 | 1820/1320 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 26/02/2026 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 26/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 26/02/2026 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB Lagarde Introductory Statement at ECON Hearing, Brussels | |
| 26/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 26/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 26/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 26/02/2026 | 0900/0900 | GB | BOE Lombardelli Remarks at Women in Economics Network | |
| 26/02/2026 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 26/02/2026 | 1020/1020 | GB | BOE Lombardelli Chairs Panel at Women in Economics Network | |
| 26/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Current account |
| 26/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 26/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 26/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 26/02/2026 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 26/02/2026 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 27/02/2026 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 27/02/2026 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 27/02/2026 | 0001/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 27/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 27/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 27/02/2026 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 27/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 27/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 27/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 27/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 0745/0845 | FR | Payrolls | |
| 27/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 27/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 27/02/2026 | 0800/0900 | *** | CH | GDP |
| 27/02/2026 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 27/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 27/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 1200/0700 | ** |  BR | Brazil Preliminary CPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 27/02/2026 | 1300/1300 | GB | BOE Pill Panel at Elgin Advisory on UK & US Economics | |
| 27/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 27/02/2026 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 27/02/2026 | 1442/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 27/02/2026 | 1600/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
