MNI Global Week Ahead - Central Banks, NFP and US Refunding

Jan-30 21:16By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets:

Developed Markets

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding

The February Refunding round starts on Monday Feb 2 (1500ET) with the Treasury’s update on financing requirements for the current (Jan-Mar) and next (Apr-Jun) quarters, at which it is expected to largely maintain its borrowing projections for the current quarter. The main event is the full Refunding announcement on Wednesday Feb 4 (0830ET), in which any adjustments to the policy statement’s guidance on future auction size increases will be closely-watched as usual. The prevailing expectation is that there will be no change to the guidance "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters", but that was also the overwhelming expectation in the last refunding round which surprised with a tweak, adding that "Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes". Of course, it would be a shock if there were any changes to nominal coupons in this round given Treasury’s professed adherence to a “regular and predictable” approach. Our expectation remains that the next upsizing will be in November but the risks are skewed to a later increase. Consensus is fairly roughly split between November 2026 and February 2027.

TUESDAY - RBA Decision

The combination of a resilient labour market and stronger than expected Dec/Q4 inflation has the sell-side consensus expecting an RBA rate hike next week. If delivered, focus will be on how much follow up action the central bank sees as needed to ensure inflation returns to target. The trimmed mean CPI y/y has been trending up since mid last year and is now comfortably above the top end of the RBA's 2-3% target band. Market pricing is now over 70% priced for a 25bps hike next week, per OIS markets. Towards year end pricing is around 4.10%, slightly off recent highs. This implies around 2 hikes, including one next week.

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Eurozone January Flash Inflation and ECB Decision

Eurozone flash January headline HICP inflation is expected at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior), with core seen decelerating to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior). We've already had country-level data from Germany, Spain and Belgium this week, with France, Italy and the Netherlands due next week. Although headline HICP readings in Spain and Germany surprised a little to the upside, there were more positive developments in core inflation trends. In Germany, we saw evidence of disinflationary start of year services price resets - a dynamic ECB Governing Council members will welcome. If consensus is released, it would put core HICP in a good position to potentially undershoot the ECB's Q1 2026 projection of 2.4%.

The ECB is expected to hold its three key interest rates steady on Thursday, while retaining its familiar data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. The deposit rate has been at 2.00% since June 2025, and thus remains nicely within the ECB's long-term neutral range estimate of 1.75-2.25%. There have been both slightly dovish and slightly hawkish developments in January, which should guard against President Lagarde sending too strong a signal in either direction at the press conference. Overall, the Governing Council (GC) is likely to continue to assert that it is in a "good place", albeit very attentive to incoming developments. On the dovish side, a return of US-led geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty looks to have been short-lived, but remains at the forefront of GC minds. Meanwhile, the latest strengthening in the Euro (particularly against the US dollar) has reignited downside inflation concerns amongst more dovish GC members. Finally, there are some signs of disinflationary start-of-year services price resets in country-level flash January inflation data released so far. However, Q4 flash GDP was solid at 0.3% Q/Q (above the ECB's 0.2% projection), and country-level details point to a positive contribution from domestic demand. Meanwhile, the Governing Council will need to see more than the January flash inflation round to determine whether the risks to its Q1 2026 core projections are unambiguously to the downside. Markets price around 6.5bps of easing through September 2026, but we will likely need to see a string of dovish data surprises before another cut becomes the base case.

WEDNESDAY - NZ Q4 Labour Market Data

The market looks for a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%, with 0.3%q/q rise expected in employment (but still negative y/y). The 5.3% unemployment rate is also the RBNZ's forecast (made last November). Focus will be on signs the labour market is recovering amidst what looks to be a better growth backdrop through the tail end of 2025 and into early 2026. Market pricing is flat for the first two RBNZ meetings this year but has around 2 hikes priced by year end (versus the current cash rate of 2.25%). The update next week would need to be quite strong to bring forward these expectations. The general sense is that better growth will take time to show up in the labour market.

THURSDAY - BOE Decision

The upcoming Bank of England meeting is probably the least anticipated quarterly meeting for some time with the MPC expected to leave Bank Rate on hold and leave guidance unchanged, but there are still aspects worth watching. There will be focus on the vote (which from the early previews we have read is expected to be 7-2 with risks of 6-3) but the main focus is likely to be twofold: firstly on the Agents' Annual Pay Survey which will be announced alongside the decision and which the MPC have already been privy to and will be used as a guide for how sticky wage inflation is expected to be through 2026 (early responses pointed to around 3.5% which is still relatively high with a 2% CPI target unless productivity improves. Secondly, the individual member paragraphs will be watched - particularly Governor Bailey and both Breeden and Ramsden (assuming neither of the latter two vote for a sequential cut). Any hints guiding towards a March cut will be key here and if there is nothing suitably dovish in their comment the market is likely to continue to look towards April as the more likely scenario. At the time of writing, markets price a negligible chance of a February cut, only 4bp by March, 17bp by April and the first cut not fully priced until July (which is indeed the only cut fully priced into the curve now).

FRIDAY - US January Labour Market Report

Another government shutdown looms but with questions over its potential duration and breadth. In the event the BLS isn’t impacted, the nonfarm payrolls report for January will highlight the week’s economic data on Friday. Monthly payrolls growth is currently expected at 65k in January for a similar pace to the 50k in December and 56k in November. If accurate, it would see another month that implies roughly zero payrolls growth when extrapolating expected downward revisions. We’ll finally see these annual benchmark revisions to the level of employment back in March 2025 with this release, with the preliminary estimate of -911k but -700-800k more likely in our view. A 700k reduction would be close to the 60k per month touted by Fed Chair Powell. The unemployment rate will again be a key component in shaping reaction to the report, with consensus currently looking for 4.4% after the 4.38% in December pulled back from the surprisingly high but shutdown-distorted 4.54% in November after 4.44% in Sep and 4.32% in Aug. The Chicago Fed’s advance nowcast looks for 4.35% whilst alternative metrics have been mixed, with consumers clearly feeling pressures as the Conference Board’s labor market differential weakened to fresh recent lows but jobless claims data have offered particularly favorable comparisons with prior payrolls reference periods. Some have cautioned that continuing claims are pushing lower as long-term recipients roll out of eligibility for regular state 26-week programs although JPMorgan analysis suggests this isn’t the sole factor. Should the BLS be impacted by a shutdown, expect additional weight to be placed on the ISM surveys (manufacturing Monday, services Wednesday) as well as the ADP employment report, with the latter expected at 45k but its latest weekly series tracking lower at an equivalent 31k.

Emerging Markets

WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)

The NBP faces a binary choice at the ‘live’ meeting in February – keep rates unchanged or deliver a 25bp cut. The unusually short interval since the previous MPC meeting left policymakers with limited new information. Stronger-than-expected economic activity and labour market data for December, alongside robust preliminary 2025 GDP growth figures, reduce the urgency to resume easing. On the other hand, the inflation outlook remains benign, keeping the central bank’s dovish bias intact.

THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czechia)

The Bank Board is expected to keep the two-week repo rate unchanged, despite a recent dovish shift in communication from Jan Frait and Jan Prochazka ahead of the traditional media blackout. While Frait suggested that a disinflationary external environment could open the door to rate-cut discussions as early as February, policymakers are likely to opt for patience. Against this backdrop, markets will closely scrutinize the tone of the accompanying communication as well as the details of the new macroeconomic forecast.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)

Banxico is widely expected to remain on hold at 7.00% on Thursday, as it takes its time to assess incoming data amid concerns about persistent core CPI inflation pressures. The recent shift in the committee’s guidance, plus confirmation from an MNI interview with Deputy Governor Cuadra, has all but cemented an easing cycle pause. Further ahead, however, the weak growth backdrop keeps the door open to renewed rate cuts later this year, and in its recent 2026 monetary programme, the central bank said that it will evaluate the moment for further easing after assessing price adjustments. Economists see the next cut coming in May, according to latest survey data.

FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)

A near unanimous consensus for no change from the RBI next week is driven by a balance of robust economic growth and subdued inflation, allowing the central bank to assess the impact of previous rate cuts. This follows a series of cumulative rate cuts totalling 125 basis points since early 2025. With inflation well below the RBI's target range and economic growth holding up well, there is little urgency for further rate adjustments. The central bank's primary focus is expected to be on ensuring that prior rate cuts are fully transmitted through the banking system and managing liquidity conditions in the market, which includes substantial injections to counter FX outflows and support credit flow. Whilst domestic conditions are stable, external factors like the weak Rupee (which has hit record lows) and global trade uncertainties (e.g., US tariff relief hopes are on hold) will be on the RBI's mind. Most economists expect the rates to remain steady through the end of 2026, with future decisions contingent on the evolving growth and inflation dynamics, as well as the government's fiscal consolidation path. Swaps are starting to price in hikes at the end of 2026 but have little expectations for the first half of the year.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
31/01/2026	0130/0930	***	CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/01/2026	0130/0930	**	CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
02/02/2026	2200/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
02/02/2026	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
02/02/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
02/02/2026	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/02/2026	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
02/02/2026	1145/1145		GB	BOE Breeden on Payments
02/02/2026	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
02/02/2026	1500/1000	***	US	ISM Manufacturing Index
02/02/2026	1730/1230		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
03/02/2026	0030/1130	*	AU	Building Approvals
03/02/2026	0330/1430	***	AU	RBA Rate Decision
03/02/2026	0700/0200	*	TR	Turkey CPI
03/02/2026	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
03/02/2026	0745/0845		FR	Budget Balance
03/02/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	ECB Bank Lending Survey
03/02/2026	1300/0800		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
03/02/2026	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
03/02/2026	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
04/02/2026	2200/0900	*	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
04/02/2026	2200/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
04/02/2026	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
04/02/2026	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
04/02/2026	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
04/02/2026	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
04/02/2026	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/02/2026	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/02/2026	0830/0930		SE	Riksbank Minutes
04/02/2026	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/02/2026	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/02/2026	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/02/2026	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/02/2026	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/02/2026	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/02/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/02/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/02/2026	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
04/02/2026	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
04/02/2026	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ PPI
04/02/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Flash
04/02/2026	1000/1100	***	IT	Italy Flash Inflation
04/02/2026	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
04/02/2026	1330/0830	***	US	Treasury Quarterly Refunding
04/02/2026	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
04/02/2026	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global US Final Composite PMI
04/02/2026	1500/1000	***	US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
04/02/2026	1500/1000		US	Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
04/02/2026	1700/1200		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
04/02/2026	2330/1830		US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
05/02/2026	0030/1130	**	AU	Trade Balance
05/02/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	Manufacturing Orders
05/02/2026	0745/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
05/02/2026	0830/0930	**	EU	S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
05/02/2026	0900/1000	*	IT	Retail Sales
05/02/2026	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
05/02/2026	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Retail Sales
05/02/2026	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
05/02/2026	1230/1230		GB	BOE Press Conference
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
05/02/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
05/02/2026	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
05/02/2026	1345/1445		EU	ECB Press Conference
05/02/2026	1400/1400		GB	BOE Decision Maker Panel data
05/02/2026	1500/1000		US	Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
05/02/2026	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
05/02/2026	1550/1050		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
05/02/2026	1725/1225		CA	BOC Governor Macklem speech in Toronto, release time TBC.
05/02/2026	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
06/02/2026	2330/0830	**	JP	Household spending
06/02/2026	0645/0745		EU	ECB Cipollone on Digital Euro at Association of Cyprus Banks
06/02/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
06/02/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
06/02/2026	0700/0800	***	SE	Flash Inflation Report
06/02/2026	0745/0845	*	FR	Foreign Trade
06/02/2026	0800/0900	**	ES	Industrial Production
06/02/2026	0800/0900	**	CH	Unemployment
06/02/2026	1200/1200		GB	BOE Market Participants Survey
06/02/2026	1215/1215		GB	BOE Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing
06/02/2026	-		GB	BOE MPG Agenda Published
06/02/2026	1330/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
06/02/2026	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
06/02/2026	1500/1000	*	CA	Ivey PMI
06/02/2026	1500/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
06/02/2026	1700/1200		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
06/02/2026	2000/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit