FED: MNI FOMC Minutes Preview – April 2026 Meeting

• RES 4: 188.81 2.236 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing  
• RES 3: 188.15 2.000 proj of the Mar 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 188.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 187.64 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 187.60 @ 16:41 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 185.89 Low Apr 13
• SUP 2: 184.97 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 184.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 182.59 Low Mar 30 

A strong bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is building on recent gains. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of resistance at 186.87, the Jan 23 high and a key medium-term hurdle. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that price remains inside a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low. Initial firm support to watch is 184.97, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 188.15, a Fibonacci projection.        

The NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey showed an impressive jump in the headline General Business Conditions index in April to 11.0 vs a negative reading in March (-0.2) in which it was something of a regional outlier to the downside.

• This was a 5-month high in the index, suggesting a shrugging-off of Iran war-related impact (Survey responses were collected between April 2 and 9, which partly captured the April 7 announcement of a ceasefire).
• The most impressive component of the survey was New Orders which soared to 19.3 from 6.4 for the highest since April 2023. Employment rose to 9.8 from 5.8, a less impressive jump, but reaching the best level since December 2022.
• Shipments improved too while delivery times and inventories were relatively flat, meaning that the overall translation into the national ISM Manufacturing gauge was 56.6, up from 52.6 prior, which was the best since April 2022.
• The most clearly cautionary note from the MidEast war impact came from prices: current prices paid jumped to 51.0 from 36.6 for a 6-month high, with expected 6-month prices paid reaching 61.6 vs 43.1 prior for a 5-month high. Prices received, both current and expected, also ticked higher. 

• Crude prices are little changed on Wednesday after a larger than expected US crude stock draw offset pressure from signs of progress towards a ceasefire extension and a second round of talks between the US and Iran.
• WTI May 26 is down 0.1% at $91.2/bbl.
• Negotiators aim to extend the ceasefire, which is due to expire on April 22, for at least two weeks to allow diplomacy another chance, AP reports. Meanwhile, the US and Iran made progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, two US officials told Axios.
• The IMF cautioned that an adverse scenario of prolonged conflict could keep oil prices near $100/b, potentially triggering a global recession with growth slowing to 2% in 2026.
• From a technical perspective, recent weakness in WTI futures is considered corrective. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at $87.14, which has been tested. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term reversal.
• Elsewhere, precious metals have fallen today, with spot gold down by 0.9% at $4,800/oz and silver 0.3% lower at $79.3/oz.
• For gold, a short-term bull cycle is still intact, with scope for an extension towards $4,914.9, a Fibonacci retracement point.
• Initial firm support to watch lies at $4,554.2, the Apr 2 low. A break of this level would be bearish.