MNI Fed Review-Sept 2025: No Risk-Free Paths Now

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• The Fed resumed its easing cycle with the first cut of the year on September 17, of 25bp to a range of 4.00-4.25%.
• That decision was expected, but the lack of conviction on the FOMC about the rate path forward was a key theme of the September meeting’s release materials, as well as Chair Powell’s press conference.
• Despite a lower rate path signalled in the new Dot Plot, a seeming lack of clarity on delivering those future rate cuts saw an early dovish market reaction subsequently reverse.
• See PDF report for:
  • MNI View
  • Market Reaction
  • MNI Instant Answers
  • Press Conference Transcript
  • FOMC Meeting Links
  • Policy Statement Changes
  • Dot Plot/Econ Projections