MNI EXCLUSIVE: NBH to Choose Stability Over Cuts - Ex Governor Simor
Former Governor Andras Simor provides his outlook for the National Bank of Hungary - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
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IRELAND: Harris Refuses To Be Drawn On Early Election Amid Sinn Fein Scandal
Speaking in Brussels ahead of the 17 Oct EUCO summit, Irish Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris hints at a general election in the near future, but refuses to lay out a timeline for any poll. Harris: "There will be an election in due course. Objectively, it can't be that far away, and I've consistently said I certainly won't take my coalition partners by surprise in any manner or means."
- Questions on the timing of an election come as scandal envelops the main opposition left-wing Irish republican Sinn Féin. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald is facing questions over her position amid the resignation of two deputies due to the handling of internal affairs. Prominent TD Brian Stanley resigned on 12 Oct, lashing out at a 'clique' within the party targeting him with a 'kangaroo court'.
- Slumping support for Sinn Féin (see chart below) has led to speculation that Harris could call an election within weeks (the latest date for the vote is March 2025). In Brussels, Harris says that Sinn Féin's issues would not impact when an election is called, and that his gov't still has work to do in implementing the budget.
- Harris' centre-right Fine Gael emerging as the largest party would put it in good stead to re-form the current gov't with the centrist Fianna Fail and environmentalist Greens. A potential wildcard could come in the form of independents, who as a bloc are polling around 20%. A large cohort of unaligned TD's post-election could make coalition formation a lengthy process.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ireland Thinks, Opinions, Ipsos B&A, Red C, B&A, MNI
STIR: SFR Call spread, spread
SFRX4 95.87/96.25cs vs 0QX4 97.25/97.50cs, bought the front for flat in 5k.
US TSYS: Tight Ranges & Light Flattening, FV Block Buy Offsets Data
The previously covered ~$556K DV01 block buy in FV futures countered a downtick that came on the back of oil moving away from session lows and details of the import price data offering upside risks to core PCE.
- Spill over from continued demand for UK gilts also noted.
- TYZ4 sticks to a narrow 0-08 range, last 112-19+.
- Initial resistance at the Oct 9 high (112-21) was pierced earlier, bulls look for a more sustained break before turning focus higher.
- Yields 2-3bp lower across the curve, light flattening.
