MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight: January 2026

Services Y/Y Lower But Drivers Ambiguous - CLICK HERE FOR FULL REPORT 

Key Eurozone January preliminary HICP prints

• Headline 1.69% (1.7% MNI tracking and consensus, 1.97% prior)
• Core 2.19% (2.2% MNI median, 2.37% prior)
   

Executive Summary

• HICP inflation decelerated in January, closely in line with initial analyst consensus. Core HICP also closely in line with expectations.
• Services decelerated more substantially than anticipated on the yearly rate. Details from some countries point towards slower annual repricing behind some of the move but seasonally-adjusted data makes the print look quite firm.
• The full January release on Feb 25 will provide an update on exact drivers, especially on services.
• By country, trends were mixed: Germany, Italy and Spain surprised to the upside while France was lower than expected.
• Methodology updates in January only brought material changes to processed and unprocessed foods categories.
• Ongoing rhetoric suggests the ECB Governing Council thinks the bar to a move into either direction is high.