EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: US Equity Futures
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
POLITICS (BBC): “Addressing Labour MPs on Monday evening, the prime minister said the current welfare system was "the worst of all worlds", discouraging people from working while producing a "spiralling bill".”
EU
GERMANY (BBG): “Germany’s Greens demanded tougher rules for defense spending, making a counteroffer in talks aimed at unleashing hundreds of billions of euros for a prospective ruling coalition of the conservatives and the Social Democrats.”
UKRAINE (FIRSTPOST): “Following a summit of European leaders regarding the situation in Ukraine, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced earlier this month that a “coalition of the willing”. To figure out the specifics of the plan, European defence chiefs and defence ministers will meet in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to i newspaper.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “America's top diplomat has said that he sees promise in Ukraine's proposal for a partial ceasefire to end the war with Russia, ahead of talks in Saudi Arabia between US and Ukrainian officials.”
BUSINESS (ECONOMIST): “Volkswagen will look back on a tough year as it unveils annual results on Tuesday. The world’s second-biggest car manufacturer has forecast sales of around €320bn ($347bn), roughly on a par with 2023. But profits may have fallen as operating margins slide from 7% to an expected 5.6%.”
GREENLAND (BBC): “Residents of Greenland head to the polls on Tuesday in a vote that in previous years has drawn little outside attention - but which may prove pivotal for the Arctic territory's future. US President Donald Trump's repeated interest in acquiring Greenland has put it firmly in the spotlight.”
US
US/CHINA (BBG): “Talks between the US and China on trade and other issues are stuck at lower levels, people familiar with the matter said, with both sides talking past each other and failing to agree on the best way to proceed.”
US/UKRAINE (BBG): “Tuesday’s US-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia is intended to help clarify what concessions might be possible in the push toward a ceasefire with Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, playing down the possibility of a major breakthrough.”
INFLATION (MNI): U.S. consumers' uncertainty about inflation rose in February as median inflation expectations rose a tenth to 3.1% at the year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at the three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0%, according to a monthly New York Fed survey.
MINERALS (RTRS): “U.S. President Donald Trump aims to build metals refining facilities on Pentagon military bases as part of his plan to boost domestic production of critical minerals and offset China's control of the sector, two senior administration officials told Reuters.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's economy for the October-December period grew at a slower pace as private consumption was revised down, although capital investment was revised up, second preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office showed on Tuesday.
CANADA (MNI BOC WATCH): Canada's central bank is seen lowering interest rates for a seventh consecutive meeting Wednesday as U.S. tariff hikes damage exports and investment, overwhelming domestic momentum from past cuts.
CANADA (MNI): Carney To Take On Trump, Be Fiscally Cautious - Ministers.
CHINA
STIMULUS (MNI EXCLUSIVE): Room For More China Stimulus, A senior China advisor sees greater room for fiscal and monetary stimulus. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
HOUSING (MNI): A senior China advisor eyes official support for property company consolidations. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
HOUSING (SECURITIES TIMES): “China’s second-hand housing market transaction volume increased 38.45% y/y last week in 10 key cities, continuing the recent recovery, Securities Times reported.”
AUTOS (PCA): “China saw new car average prices reach CNY30,000 during the first two months of the year, a decrease of 12.6%, with new energy vehicles down 13%, data from the Passenger Car Association showed.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY0.5 Bln via OMO Tuesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY37.7 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY0.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY38.2 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1733 Mon; -0.60% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1733 on Monday, compared with 7.1705 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2408 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
UK BRC FEB LIKE-FOR-LIKE SALES +0.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.0%; JAN +2.5% Y/Y
UK BARCLAYS UK FEB CONSUMER SPENDING +1.0% Y/Y; JAN +1.9%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 MANUFACTURING VOLUMES +1.1% Q/Q; Q3 -0.9%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 MANUFACTURING SALES +2.6% Q/Q; Q3 +0.2%
AUSTRALIA MARCH WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE +4% M/M; FEB. +0.1%
AUSTRALIA MARCH WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 95.9; FEB. 92.2
AUSTRALIA FEB. NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -1; JAN. +5
AUSTRALIA FEB. NAB BUSINESS CONDITIONS +4; JAN. +3
JAPAN JAN. HOUSEHOLD SPENDING +0.8% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%; DEC. +2.7%
JAPAN Q4 F GDP GROWS 0.6% Q/Q; EST. 0.7%; Q3 +0.4%
JAPAN Q4 F GDP GROWS 2.2% ANNUALIZED; EST. 2.8%; Q3 +1.4%
JAPAN Q4 F NOMINAL GDP +1.1% Q/Q; EST. +1.3%; Q3 +0.7%
JAPAN Q4 F PRIVATE CONSUMPTION 0.0% Q/Q; EST. 0.1%; Q3 +0.7%
JAPAN Q4 F BUSINESS SPENDING +0.6% Q/Q; EST. 0.4%; Q3 -0.1%
JAPAN Q4 F INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION -0.3 PPTS; EST. -0.2 PPTS; Q3 +0.1 PPTS
JAPAN Q4 F NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION +0.7 PPTS; EST. +0.7 PPTS; Q3 -0.1 PPTS
JAPAN FEB. M2 +1.2%; JAN. +1.3%
JAPAN FEB. M3 +0.7%; JAN. +0.8%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Cash Bonds Richer But Off Bests As Risk Reverses Higher
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is currently at 111-19+, 0-09 from closing levels, after trading as high as 111-25 early on equity market weakness.
JGBS: Sharply Richer With US Tsys, PPI & 20Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures are sharply higher and at session highs, +85 compared to settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Richer, Off Bests With US Tsys, Dec-34 Supply Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +7.0 & XM +6.0) are stronger after today’s consumer and business confidence data.
BONDS: NZGBS: Bull-Steepener As Long End Gains Pared
NZGBs closed 2-5bps richer, with a steeper curve as the long end moved away from session bests in line with US tsys. Cash US tsys sit mid-range, 1-3bps richer, after equities reversed early Asia-Pac session weakness.
FOREX: USD Index Lower, But Safe Havens Lose Ground As US Equity Futures Recover
The major currencies are firmer against the USD, although safe havens JPY and CHF are away from best levels as US equity futures recovered some ground. The BBDXY index was last near 1269.7, off around 0.10% versus end NY close levels from Monday.
OIL: Crude Off Intraday Lows, EIA Report & Inventory Data Later Today
Oil prices fell sharply earlier in the APAC session as the risk-off tone from Monday driven by global growth concerns continued but they have bounced off the intraday low to be little changed today but are still retaining yesterday’s losses. WTI is down 0.2% to $65.91/bbl after falling to $65.29, just above initial support. Brent is slightly lower at $69.26/bbl following a low of $68.63, holding above support at $68.33. The USD index is 0.1% lower.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
11/03/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | ![]() | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
11/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
11/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
11/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
11/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | ![]() | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
11/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ![]() | JOLTS jobs opening level |
11/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ![]() | JOLTS quits Rate |
11/03/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | ![]() | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
11/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | ![]() | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
12/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | ![]() | RICS House Prices |
12/03/2025 | 0730/0730 | ![]() | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
12/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ![]() | Lagarde at "ECB and Its Watchers" conference Frankfurt | |
12/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
12/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
12/03/2025 | 1100/1200 | ![]() | ECB Wage Tracker | |
12/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
12/03/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | ![]() | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |