Iran-Israel Conflict (BBG) : “President Donald Trump met with his national security team in Washington for more than an hour on Tuesday to discuss the escalating Middle East conflict, according to people familiar with the matter, fueling fresh speculation that the US is on the verge of joining Israel’s attack on Iran.”
Iran-Israel Conflict (BBC) :At least 30 US military planes have been moved from bases in America to Europe over the past three days, flight tracking data reviewed by BBC Verify has shown. The planes in question are all US military tanker aircraft used to re-fuel fighter jets and bombers. According to Flightradar24, at least seven of these - all KC-135s - stopped off in US airbases in Spain, Scotland and England.
FRANCE (POLITICO): “Macron warns violent Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’. French president also said he wasn’t fussed by Donald Trump’s attacking him.”
UK
FINANCIAL MARKETS (BBG) “The City of London has had to contend with a lot in recent years, from Brexit to a lack of stock listings. Its latest setback is the rapid decline of the sterling corporate bond market. An index tracking the size of the sterling market is set to suffer one of its largest-ever drops this month. While sales have been struggling for years, the latest slump shows how even British corporate borrowers are turning their back on it — the share of their 2025 issuance in sterling is heading for the lowest in 14 years.”
EU
TRADE (BBG) Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council chief Antonio Costa on Tuesday during the G7 summit in Canada. They discussed the update of the Mexico-European Union trade agreement, Sheinbaum said in a post on X, also sharing photos of the meeting.
ENERGY (POLITICO): “In a landmark speech in Luxembourg on Tuesday, the bloc’s energy chief Dan Jørgensen unveiled a package of new measures that would allow companies to ditch long-term contracts to buy Russian gas by 2027.The bloc’s two most Kremlin-friendly countries, Hungary and Slovakia, have already vowed to oppose the move, which they claim will lead to higher prices at home.”
TRADE (POLITICO): “The European Union and Australia announced they would start negotiating a "Security and Defence Partnership" and noted their commitment to “advancing free trade negotiations."”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “The 2025 G7 summit ended without a unified statement on Ukraine and without the U.S. president in the room.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “Russia has carried out a mass missile and drone attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, killing at least 10 people and wounding more than 100 others, officials say.”
FRANCE (POLITICO): “The French town of Evian-les-Bains will host the 2026 edition of the G7 summit from June 14-16.”
GREENLAND (POLITICO): “Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Copenhagen is willing to invest more in Greenland as Denmark tries to fend off U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid to seize the Arctic island.”
GREECE/TURKEY (POLITICO): “Turkey has claimed half of the Aegean Sea falls under its area of marine influence, escalating a territorial spat with Greece over where to put ocean conservation zones.”
US
ECONOMY (MNI INTERVIEW): Miran Sees US Trade Deal 'Flurry,' 3% H2 GDP
FINANCIAL MARKETS (BBG) : “The top US bank regulators plan to reduce a key capital buffer by up to 1.5 percentage points for the biggest lenders after concerns that it constrained their trading in the $29 trillion Treasuries market. “
OTHER
CANADA (MNI) Bank of Canada minutes published Tuesday from the June 4 decision showed officials discussed cutting rates if the trade war brings further economic weakness, while persistent inflation would make easing more difficult but not impossible.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan May Exports Post First Drop In 8 Months. Japan’s exports fell 1.7% y/y in May, the first decline in eight months, following a 2.0% gain in April, dragged down by falling shipments of automobiles and iron, and steel products due to U.S. tariffs, Ministry of Finance data showed Wednesday.
CHINA
MNI BRIEF: China To Support Foreign Participation In Finance. China will support foreign-funded companies to participate in more pilots of financial business in the country, especially in exclusive pension insurance and commercial pensions, said Li Yunze, director of the National Administration of Financial Regulation on Wednesday.
MNI ChinaPress Digest June 18: Banquets, E-Commerce, Fiscal
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY156.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY7.7 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY164 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4324% at 09:37 am local time from the close of 1.5227% on Tuesday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 47 on Tuesday, the same as the close on Monday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1761 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1746 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2001 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q2 WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 91.2; Q1 89.2
NEW ZEALAND Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 5.7% OF GDP; Q4 -6.1%
NEW ZEALAND Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT NZ$2.32B; EST. -NZ$2.20B; Q4 –NZ$6.80B
AUSTRALIA MAY WESTPAC LEADING INDEX -0.06% M/M; APR. -0.01%
JAPAN APRIL CORE MACHINE ORDERS -9.1% M/M; EST. -9.5%; MAR. +13.0% JAPAN APRIL CORE MACHINE ORDERS +6.6% Y/Y; EST. +4.2%; MAR. +8.4%
JAPAN MAY EXPORTS -1.7% Y/Y; EST. -3.7%; APR. +2.0% JAPAN MAY IMPORTS -7.7% Y/Y; EST. -5.9%; APR. -2.2% JAPAN MAY TRADE BALANCE -Y637.6B; EST. -Y896.5B; APR. –Y349.2B
The TYU5 range has been 110-23+ to 110.30 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-25, down 0-02 from the previous close.
The US 2-year yield is unchanged; it is trading around 3.95%.
The US 10-year yield edged higher, it is trading around 4.40%, up 0.01 from its close.
MNI FED: FOMC Meeting Expectations: Patience Mostly Seen In New Projections. We expect that the June meeting communications will reflect an increasingly patient attitude since May and certainly since March’s projections
(Bloomberg) -- “The report on possible easing of the US bank capital rule has so far seen muted market reaction in part because it falls short of expectations, according to National Australia Bank. “A general reduction in capital requirements is a lesser deal than a Treasury exemption,” says Ken Crompton, head of rates strategy at the Australian bank. The general lowering of the ratio is still theoretically supportive for Treasuries’ demand, but not as much as an exemption would be, says Crompton.”
The 10-year yield bounced strongly off its 4.30/35% support, this area needs to hold if yields are to move higher. The range looks to be 4.30% - 4.60% for now a break either side would provide a clearer direction. Lots for the market to digest as things heat up in the middle east and we approach the FOMC.
Data/Events: MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing starts, Initial Jobless Claims, FOMC
JGB futures are holding stronger, +24 compared to settlement levels, but sitting near the middle of today’s range.
The primary focus of the BoJ decision was the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) beyond the near term. From the second quarter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027, it will slow that pace to ¥200 billion per quarter. Overall, the BoJ signalled a gradual, data-dependent approach to policy normalisation, balancing market stability, inflation developments, and global uncertainties as it proceeds with cautious tapering into 2026 and beyond. (See MNI BoJ Review here)
Japanese politician Shigeru Ishiba said he had frank discussions with former U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs and aims to work toward a mutually beneficial trade deal. He emphasised that tariffs, particularly on autos, would significantly impact companies and stressed that Japan must not compromise its national interests to secure a deal. (BBG)
The cash JGB curve has twist-steepened, with yields 2bps lower to 1bp higher. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.3bps lower at 1.462%.
The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates flat to 3bps higher.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside 5-year supply.
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +1.0) sit marginally stronger on a subdued pre-FOMC session.
Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper ahead of today's FOMC Decision including a Summary of Economic Projections (Dots). The June FOMC meeting communications should reflect an increasingly patient attitude from May and certainly since March's projections.
Cash ACGBs are 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps.
The bills strip little changed with pricing flat to +2.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given a 83% probability, with a cumulative 76bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
May jobs data are released tomorrow and Bloomberg consensus is expecting labour market tightness to continue, one of the reasons the RBA remains cautious regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Consensus is forecasting a 21.2k increase in new jobs, close to the 3-month average of 23k, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. In May the RBA projected 4.2% in Q2 and employment growth of 2.1% y/y. New jobs rose a stronger-than-expected 89k and 2.7% y/y in April.
The AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.
NZGBs closed little changed after a subdued session.
Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper ahead of today’s FOMC Decision including a Summary of Economic Projections (Dots). The June FOMC meeting communications should reflect an increasingly patient attitude since May and certainly since March’s projections.
The NZGB 10-year underperformed its $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU yield differentials widening 2-3bps.
Westpac Q2 consumer confidence picked up to 91.2 from 89.2 in Q1.
Swap rates closed unchanged.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 4bps of easing is priced for July, with a cumulative 26bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q1 GDP. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting the production-based measure to rise 0.7% q/q again, bringing the annual rate to -0.8%, higher than forecast by the RBNZ in May. The central bank is expecting a rise of 0.4% q/q.
With rates now in the “neutral zone” and RBNZ Governor Hawkesby saying the MPC doesn’t have a bias, and especially if GDP prints stronger than it expects, the RBNZ may be on hold on July 9.
Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1207.92 - 1210.11 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1208. “Xi Jinping said there are no winners in tariff and trade wars, and pledged 1.5 billion yuan ($209 million) in aid this year to central Asian nations as Beijing seeks closer ties with the region. He also said China is ready to play a role in restoring Mideast peace.”(BBG). “CHINA FX REGULATOR: FX MARKET RESILIENCE WILL CONTINUE, ABILITY TO COUNTER FX MARKET VOLATILITY HAS IMPROVED, WILL KEEP YUAN BASICALLY STABLE AT REASONABLE AND BALANCED LEVELS" RTRS”
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1475 - 1.1506, Asia is currently trading 1.1505. EUR has rejected the move above 1.1600 but dips should continue to find demand, first support back towards the 1.1400 area then 1.1100/1200. Price action does not look good short-term with a potential false break above 1.1500/1.1600.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3422 - 1.3447, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3445. The GBP looks to have failed in its attempts to break above the 1.35/36 Weekly pivot. First support is seen back towards 1.3400 a move back below here and we could see a deeper correction unfold.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1866 - 7.1924, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1761. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1890. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.93 - 145.44, Asia is currently trading around 144.93. USD/JPY has drifted lower in a muted Asian session, -0.25%. With the USD bouncing across the board as risk digests the potential of the US entering the fray in the middle east, the long JPY positions continue to be challenged. You would normally expect the JPY to outperform in this scenario but the outsized move in oil and a market that is already positioned very long is providing headwinds to the trade.
Japan Data - Exports Dip Y/Y, Trade Surplus With US Narrows : Japan's May trade data was close to expectations, with export growth at -1.7%y/y, versus -3.7% forecast. The April outcome was +2.0%. On the import side, we were -7.7%y/y, against a -5.9% forecast (-2.2% was recorded for April). The trade deficit was -637.6bn, close to forecasts but wider than the -115.6bn print in April.
"ISHIBA: HAD FRANK DISCUSSIONS ON TARIFFS WITH TRUMP, WILL WORK WITH US TOWARD A WIN-WIN DEAL" - BBG
"ISHIBA: TARIFFS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON COMPANIES, NAMELY AUTOS, SAYS JAPAN MUST NOT SACRIFICE NATIONAL INTEREST FOR DEAL" - BBG
“ISHIBA: WAGE INCREASE MORE IMPORTANT THAN CUTTING SALES TAX, IMPACT OF CASH HANDOUT IS MORE IMMEDIATE THAN TAX CUT" - BBG
USD/JPY found decent demand yesterday every time it had a look towards the 144.50 area yesterday. This price action stands out considering the risk backdrop and could hint at a market that is already very long JPY.
Price is back in the middle of its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either side of that to get a clearer direction. Can FOMC be that catalyst ?
The market is clearly looking for a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risk of pullbacks increase. A break above 147.00 would be needed to challenge the conviction of any shorts.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 144.00($725m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.00($1.92b June 20), 143.00($925m June 20)
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6469 - 0.6494 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6490. The AUD has drifted higher in a quiet Asian session +0.26%.
AU Data - Westpac Lead Index Signals Slower Growth. The Westpac lead indicator fell 0.06% m/m in May after -0.01% but this resulted in the 6-month annualised rate falling to -0.08%, the weakest since September but importantly signalling that growth could ease to below trend over the second half of the year.
(Bloomberg) -- “China is willing to enhance the level of trade and investment facilitation with Australia, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao says. China is willing to work with Australia to adhere to cooperation and openness, and not to engage in closed-door confrontation, Wang says.”
The AUD failed miserably again to break above the 0.6550 area, with momentum stalling and the USD starting to bounce the probability of it moving to the bottom end of its range increases.
Price remains in the 0.6350 - 0.6550 range for now, a sustained break above 0.6550/0.6600 is needed for the move higher to accelerate.
Buyers should continue to be around on dips while the support in the AUD/USD holds, a close back below 0.6350 is needed to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6400(AUD321m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD 1.1b June 19)
AUD/JPY - Today's range 94.02 - 94.30, it is trading currently around 94.15.Choppy price action as the pair establishes a range between 92.00 - 96.00. A break back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to see the move lower regain momentum and the focus turn back to the year's lows again.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6010 - 0.6034 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6025. The NZD has drifted higher in a quiet Asian session, still holding above 0.6000.
NZ Data - Westpac Consumer Confidence Signals Spending Outlook Remains Soft. Westpac Q2 consumer confidence picked up to 91.2 from 89.2 in Q1, while the number of pessimists declined they continue to outnumber optimists with the breakeven-index 100. Sentiment also remains below Q4 2024’s 97.5. Households remain cautious about the outlook despite 225bp of RBNZ easing given heightened global uncertainty, an unbalanced recovery and a soft labour market.
"NZ TREASURY CONFIDENT OF 2025 GROWTH DESPITE WEAK MAY DATA" - BBG
The USD is finally looking like it could potentially bounce as the risk backdrop deteriorates. We have seen this before, is this time different ?
The NZD is back to testing its support around the 0.6000 area, a break back below here and we could see a deeper pullback.
While the support around 0.5850 holds in NZD/USD there should be buyers around on dips. A clear sustained break above 0.6050/0.6100 is needed for the pair to push higher.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5760(NZD1.16b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5830(NZD300m June 23), 0.5755(NZD300m June20)
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0758 - 1.0776, currently trading 1.0770. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out last week towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, but the momentum lower seems to have stalled for now, with the range for June basically being captured within a 1.0750 - 1.0800 range.
The Hang Seng was one of the worst regional performers today, weighing heavy on other major bourses. As escalating Middle East tensions dominate this week's Federal Reserve meeting has markets sidelined to see if the FED will alter the direction for US interest rates.
The Middle East tensions are driving oil prices higher raising concerns as to the return of inflation as a catalyst for interest rates in the region.
China's Hang Seng is down -1.15% and is down -2.75% over the last five days of trading. This dragged the CSI 300 with it, albeit marginally, down -0.07%, the Shanghai Comp was softer by -0.20% and the Shenzhen Comp down -0.36%
The KOSPI's good run continued and is up +0.45% today and approaching a +2.00% gain over the last week.
The FTSE Malay KLCI barely moved today and is where it started the trading day despite the BNM governor's positive comments about the economy.
The Jakarta Composite fell -0.54%, taking back yesterday's gains.
The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore fell -0.33% and the PSEi in the Philippines fell -0.10%
The NIFTY 50 is up +0.20% so far today, looking to recover yesterday's losses of -0.37%
Oil prices have held onto Tuesday’s +5% gains during today’s APAC session. Risks that an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict impacting Middle Eastern oil exports have risen. While, Israel attacked oil and gas infrastructure, Iran’s major export facilities are so far untouched. Markets are also waiting for the Fed decision later.
WTI is down slightly to $74.80/bbl after falling to $74.72, while Brent is flat at $76.46/bbl recovering from $76.25. Both benchmarks remain below the highs following Israel’s initial strikes. The USD index is down 0.1%.
Israel has said that the US is helping it with defence but speculation is growing that it will become directly involved in the conflict. President Trump has demanded that Iran surrender and that his patience with Iran is “wearing thin”.
In its June report, the IEA revised up its 2025 supply forecast by 1.8mbd to 104.9mbd while demand is expected to be 103.8mbd. It has been signalling excess supply for some time and sustained higher prices would likely boost production. US EIA inventories are released later today but industry-based data showed a sharp 10.1mn barrel drawdown last week.
The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged but the dot plot will be monitored closely (see MNI Fed Preview). Inflation and jobs data have yet to show an impact from tariffs but some activity/survey data have slowed. The Fed is likely to want more time to evaluate the impact and now oil prices are up over 20% this month, it will also monitor its impact on inflation if sustained.
There are also a number of ECB speakers including de Guindos, Elderson, Lane, Machado and Donnery and BoC’s Macklem appears. In terms of data, US May housing starts/permits, jobless claims, euro area May CPI and UK May CPI are released.
Gold prices range traded on Tuesday and that trend has continued in today’s APAC session as markets await the Fed decision later. They fell to $3370.75/oz but have rebounded to $3399.0 to be up 0.3% today supported by the softer US dollar (USD BBDXY -0.1%). Treasury yields are little changed. Bullion continues to be dependent on the Middle East too with any escalation driving safe-haven flows.
Medium-term trend signals are bullish with moving average studies in a bull mode. Initial resistance is at $3451.3, 16 June high, while support is at $3340.2, 20-day EMA.
Prospects of the US assisting Israel in its attacks on Iran have increased. President Trump has demanded that Iran surrender but said that they won’t assassinate the Ayatollah “for now” but his patience with Iran is “wearing thin”.
Silver is 0.4% higher at $37.267 today to be up 13% this month. The intraday high of $37.282 is also the high for June. A bull wave persists and has broken above a number of resistance levels opening $37.478, March 2012 high.
The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged but the dot plot will be monitored closely (see MNI Fed Preview). Inflation and jobs data have yet to show an impact from tariffs but some activity/survey data have slowed. The Fed is likely to want more time to evaluate the impact and now oil prices are up over 20% this month, it will also monitor its impact on inflation if sustained. A prolonged hold would likely weigh on gold prices, depending on other events.
There are also a number of ECB speakers including de Guindos, Elderson, Lane, Machado and Donnery and BoC’s Macklem appears. In terms of data, US May housing starts/permits, jobless claims, euro area May CPI and UK May CPI are released.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
18/06/2025
0600/0700
***
GB
Consumer inflation report
18/06/2025
0730/0930
***
SE
Riksbank Interest Rate Decison
18/06/2025
0730/0930
EU
ECB Elderson At SRB Legal Conference 2025
18/06/2025
0800/1000
**
EU
EZ Current Account
18/06/2025
0900/1100
***
EU
HICP (f)
18/06/2025
1100/0700
**
US
MBA Weekly Applications Index
18/06/2025
1230/0830
***
US
Housing Starts
18/06/2025
1230/0830
***
US
Jobless Claims
18/06/2025
1230/0830
***
US
Housing Starts
18/06/2025
1430/1030
**
US
DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
18/06/2025
1500/1700
EU
ECB Lane At Macroprudential Conference
18/06/2025
1515/1115
CA
BOC Governor speaks in Newfoundland.
18/06/2025
1530/1130
*
US
US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
18/06/2025
1530/1130
**
US
US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
18/06/2025
1600/1200
**
US
Natural Gas Stocks
18/06/2025
1800/1400
***
US
FOMC Statement
18/06/2025
1800/2000
EU
ECB de Guindos at Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori
18/06/2025
2000/1600
**
US
TICS
19/06/2025
2245/1045
***
NZ
GDP
19/06/2025
-
NO
NorgesBank Meeting
19/06/2025
-
CH
Swiss National Bank Meeting
19/06/2025
0130/1130
***
AU
Labor Force Survey
19/06/2025
0730/0930
***
CH
SNB PolicyRate
19/06/2025
0730/0930
***
CH
SNB Interest Rate Decision
19/06/2025
0730/0930
EU
ECB's Lagarde On Economic and Financial Integration
19/06/2025
0800/1000
***
NO
Norges Bank Rate Decision
19/06/2025
0900/1100
**
EU
Construction Production
19/06/2025
0945/1145
EU
ECB de Guindos On Eurozone Economic Outlook
19/06/2025
1030/1230
EU
ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech At Economic Integration Conference