Fig. 1: ICI U.S. All Money Market Funds Total Net Assets
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
BOE: Central banks may face a hard task in limiting the impact of factors such as currency volatility which can lead to businesses raising prices in an inflationary way, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday. (RTRS)
FISCAL: Jeremy Hunt believes tax cuts this year remain unlikely because they could make it harder to control inflation after the Bank of England voted to raise interest rates again. The Chancellor privately warned that the persistence of high prices will make it harder for him to offer tax cuts or public spending increases in future. Another minister told i that Rishi Sunak “needs rates to come down” in the next year in order to convince voters that the economy is going in the right direction. (The i)
ECB: Mario Centeno of Portugal also warned that a careful approach to tightening is required. “The risk of overreacting is palpable, is present, and we should keep it in mind,” he said in Lisbon. (BBG)
ECB: Eurozone financial conditions are tightening following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, a former member of the European Central Bank’s executive board told MNI, adding that the ECB still has work to do to tame inflation but that the peak in rates is now likely to be lower. (MNI)
FISCAL: Hungary said it’s near an agreement with the European Union that would bring it a step closer toward accessing almost €28 billion ($30.5 billion) in funds frozen over concerns about the rule of law and fundamental rights. (BBG)
BANKS: The Swiss authorities and UBS Group AG are racing to close the takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG within as little as a month, according to two sources with knowledge of the plans, to try to retain the lender's clients and employees. (RTRS)
BANKS: UBS Group AG wealth boss Iqbal Khan told Credit Suisse Group AG staff in Asia that retention packages could come as soon as next week, according to people familiar with the matter, as the bank seeks to prevent an exodus of top talent. (BBG)
BANKS/BONDS: The Credit Roundtable, a lobby group of some of the biggest fixed income asset managers from the United States and Canada, has decided not to take legal action against Credit Suisse AG a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. (RTRS)
BANKS/BONDS: The Swiss authorities’ full write-down of Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) Additional Tier 1 (AT1) notes, while not imposing full losses on its equity, is not regarded by Fitch Ratings as a global crisis management template for troubled banks. (Fitch)
RATINGS: Sovereign rating reviews of note slated for after hours on Friday include:
FED: The Federal Reserve's balance sheet jumped USD94.5 billion on the week to Wednesday as the central bank's discount window lending receded from last week's record high, according to data released Thursday. (MNI)
BANKS: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the federal emergency actions to back up Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank customers could be deployed again in the future if necessary. (CNBC)
BANKS: Citizens Financial Group Inc is working on a bid to acquire the private banking business of failed Silicon Valley Bank, two people familiar with the matter said on Thursday. (RTRS)
MONEY MARKETS: The amount of money parked at money-market funds climbed to a fresh record in the week through March 22 as bankin concerns continued to rock global markets. (BBG)
INFLATION: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that supply chain pressures and shipping costs were coming down and were eventually likely to bring down inflation. (RTRS)
FISCAL: House Republicans are finalizing a formal list of spending cuts they’ll demand from President Joe Biden in exchange for their support for raising the US debt ceiling, Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington told reporters. (BBG)
POLITICS: President Joe Biden’s approval rating dipped in a new poll released Thursday, approaching an all-time low for that survey as Americans give the Democrat poor marks on how he has handled the economy. Only 38% of respondents said they approve of the job Biden is doing, versus 61% who said they disapprove, according to the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. The president’s approval in March fell from 45% in February and 41% in January, according to the survey. (CNBC)
GLOBAL TRADE: Democratic and Republican senators questioned President Joe Biden’s trade chief on efforts to negotiate agreements on critical minerals with the European Union and Japan, demanding greater transparency and congressional approval. (BBG)
U.S./CHINA: A US Navy destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea on March 24 local time, according to a statement from the US 7th Fleet. (BBG)
U.S./CHINA: TikTok Chief Executive Shou Chew’s appearance in Congress on Thursday did little to calm the bipartisan fury directed at the viral video-sharing service. If anything, his more than four hours of testimony gave critics more fuel to insist the app be banned in the US. (BBG)
U.S./CHINA: U.S. corporate due diligence firm Mintz Group's Beijing office was raided by authorities and five Chinese staff were detained, a source with the company told Reuters on Thursday. (RTRS)
NATO: Sweden, meanwhile, has been left puzzled by the separation of its application from Finland’s. While Turkey has made its objections known, it’s unclear why Hungary continues to drag its heels. “I didn’t get an actual explanation, only the message that they have no intention of delaying any country’s accession,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said after talking to his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orban, at an EU summit in Brussels. “I don’t see any reason for delay, but we are aware that every country makes it’s own decisions.” (BBG)
JAPAN: Japanese firms see inflation and the chance of worldwide recession as the primary risks they face in fiscal 2023, a Reuters monthly poll showed. (RTRS)
AUSTRALIA: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor party is on the cusp of holding power in every mainland state and territory for just the second time in the party’s 120-year history. Yet such dominance may prove a poisoned chalice. Polls suggest a state election on Saturday in New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state that includes Sydney, could end 12 years of center-right rule. That would mean all of the nation’s six states and two territories bar one — the island state of Tasmania — would be under Labor rule. (BBG)
NEW ZEALAND: New Zealand’s economy may have contracted in the first three months of 2023 as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events, according to a report from the Economics Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (BBG)
NORTH KOREA: The Japanese government is making final preparations to extend sanctions on North Korea by 2 years, TV Asahi reports, citing an unidentified official. (BBG)
NORTH KOREA: North Korean state news agency KCNA said on Friday it tested a new nuclear underwater attack drone under leader Kim Jong Un's guidance this week, as a U.S. amphibious assault ship arrived in South Korea for joint drills. (RTRS)
BRAZIL: The Brazilian stock market deepened losses on Thursday after the country's central bank decision to maintain a hawkish stance triggered further criticism from leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (RTRS)
RUSSIA/BANKS: Credit Suisse Group AG and UBS Group AG are among the banks under scrutiny in a US Justice Department probe into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter. (BBG)
RUSSIA/BANKS: The European Central Bank is pressing Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International to unwind its highly profitable business in Russia, five people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. (RTRS)
SOUTH AFRICA: Blackouts have reduced the potential size of South Africa’s economy by almost a fifth since they started being imposed around 2008, according to an energy specialist at Africa’s biggest fund manager. (BBG)
COLOMBIA/IMF: Colombia's economy is currently undergoing a transition toward a more sustainable growth path, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday, highlighting tightened macroeconomic policies, slowing global growth and higher borrowing costs. (RTRS)
IRAN: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday the United States was looking at ways to strengthen its sanctions against Iran, but acknowledged the sanctions had not resulted in the behavioral or policy changes Washington desires from Tehran. (RTRS)
ISRAEL: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned his defence chief on Thursday after reports the minister wanted to halt the government's judicial overhaul plans, as cracks opened in the ruling coalition over the bitterly disputed project. (RTRS)
FOREX: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday she remained confident the U.S. dollar was going to remain the global reserve currency even as she remarked that Russia and China may want to develop an alternative to it, which she described as difficult to achieve. (RTRS)
METALS: The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Thursday that no further “irregularities” have been found in LME-warranted nickel stocks following a 100% inspection of all bagged nickel warrants in LME-licensed warehouses. The 146-year-old exchange is on track to resume the Asian hours nickel trading on March 27 “given its confidence in the situation following the inspection,” it added. (RTRS)
OIL: US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said it will be “difficult” this year to refill government oil reserves, even as crude prices hovered within the agency’s target buy-back range. (BBG)
OIL: A change is on the horizon for oil demand, with India set to eclipse China as the most important driver of global growth — and potentially the last, as the world shifts to a greener future. (BBG)
PBOC: The People’s Bank of China needs to carefully weigh additional cuts to the reserve requirement ratio to ensure Chinese lenders have adequate buffers against any possible liquidity risk, sharpening regulators’ focus on banks’ liquidity management and investments, policy advisers and economists said. (MNI)
INFLATION/ECONOMY: The price war among automakers in China has fueled worries that the pressures on profitability could spread to their suppliers, the Securities Times reported, citing unidentified companies. (BBG)
ECONOMY: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has launched a High Quality Development and Common Prosperity Demonstration Zone, in Zhejiang province, according to 21st Century Herald. (MNI)
EQUITIES: Chinese insurance companies are likely to increase their equity investments as the domestic stock market recovers and the pressure for them to hunt for higher returns builds up following rises in liabilities costs, according to a front-page commentary in the Securities Daily. (BBG)
TRUSTS: The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) released its final version of reforms for the trust industry that will see firms in the sector classified into separate categories, each with distinct rules, according to the 21st Century Herald. (MNI)
PROPERTY/BONDS: Evergrande Real Estate Group Co Ltd, a unit of China Evergrande Group, said it failed to pay interest on 4 billion yuan ($586.6 million) bonds due by March 23. (RTRS)
PBOC NET DRAINS CNY173 BILLION VIA OMOS FRIDAY
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY7 billion via 7-day reverse repos on Friday, with the rates unchanged at 2.00%. The operation has led to a net drain of CNY173 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY180 billion reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.
PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.8374 FRI VS 6.8709 THURS
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.8374 on Friday, compared with 6.8709 set on Thursday.
JAPAN FEB CPI +3.3% Y/Y; MEDIAN +3.3%; JAN +4.3%
JAPAN FEB CPI EXCL. FRESH FOOD +3.1% Y/Y; MEDIAN +3.1%; JAN +4.2%
JAPAN FEB CPI EXCL. FRESH FOOD & ENERGY +3.5% Y/Y; MEDIAN +3.4%; JAN +3.2%
JAPAN MAR, P JIBUN BANK MANUFACTURING PMI 48.6; FEB 47.7
JAPAN MAR, P JIBUN BANK SERVICES PMI 54.2; FEB 54.0
JAPAN MAR, P JIBUN BANK COMPOSITE PMI 51.9; FEB 51.1
Activity at Japanese private sector firms increased for the third consecutive month, according to March flash PMI data. Central to the upturn was a solid improvement at Japanese service providers. (IHS Markit)
AUSTRALIA MAR, P JUDO BANK MANUFACTURING PMI 48.7; FEB 50.5
AUSTRALIA MAR, P JUDO BANK SERVICES PMI 48.2; FEB 50.7
AUSTRALIA MAR, P JUDO BANK COMPOSITE PMI 48.1; FEB 50.6
The Flash PMI results for March confirm that the economic slowdown that commenced in 2022 is continuing into 2023. The composite output and new orders indexes fell in March to be at the lowest levels since the Delta lockdowns in 2021. The March results are consistent with a soft landing for the Australian economy in 2023 and 2024 as the economy responds to higher interest rates. (Judo Bank)
UK MAR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -36; MEDIAN -36; FEB -38
TYM3 deals at 116-05+, +0-06, with a 0-18 range observed on volume of ~134k.
JGB futures operated in a contained range in the grander scheme of things, failing to challenge the extremities witnessed in the overnight session during Tokyo dealing. Gyrations in U.S. Tsys were in the driving seat for the most part, outside of the early super-core CPI-related blip lower, while weakness in the longer end of the JGB curve became more pronounced, before fading.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y5.12518tn 3-Month Bills:
ACGBs closed just shy of bests (YM +7.0 & XM +7.5) after U.S Tsys re-visited but failed to breach NY highs in Asia-Pac trade. Cash ACGBs richened 6-7bp with the 3/10 curve 1bp flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential -1bp at -16bp.
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$500mn of the 4.25% 21 April 2026 Bond, issue #TB142:
The AOFM has released its weekly issuance slate:
NZGBs close at session bests after richening with U.S. Tsys but then failing to weaken with them after they bounce off NY highs. The 2-year and 10-year cash benchmarks closed respectively 8bp and 4bp stronger with the 2/10 curve 4bp steeper. NZ/US & NZ/AU cash 10-year yield differentials closed respectively +1bp at +72bp and +2bp at +88bp.
Broader risk assets struggled in early Asia-Pac trade, without much of a headline driver evident.
Bullion has consolidated Thursday’s gains during the final Asia-Pac session of the week, last dealing little changed, just above the $1,990/oz mark. Spot once again failed to consolidate above $2,000/oz on Thursday, after drawing support from shifts in market pricing which pointed to deeper Fed cuts through late ‘23/early ’24. Still, gold managed to register the highest daily close since March of last year.
WTI and Brent initially extended on Thursday’s weakness with risk assets on the defensive in early Asia-Pac trade, before stabilising as e-minis recovered and the Hang Seng Tech Index firmed, leaving the global oil benchmarks $0.10 or so below their respective settlement levels into London hours. Still, WTI & Brent remain on track to snap a two-week streak of weekly net losses.
USD/JPY sits a touch off session lows. The pair is ~0.5% lower and the yen is the strongest performer in the G-10 space at the margins. US Treasury yields have ticked lower, boosting demand for the JPY.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
24/03/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | SE | PPI |
24/03/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Retail Sales |
24/03/2023 | 0730/0730 | ![]() | UK | DMO to Publish Apr-Jun Gilt Op Calendar | |
24/03/2023 | 0800/0900 | ** | ![]() | ES | PPI |
24/03/2023 | 0800/0900 | *** | ![]() | ES | GDP (f) |
24/03/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
24/03/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
24/03/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
24/03/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
24/03/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | CA | Retail Trade |
24/03/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
24/03/2023 | 1330/0930 | ![]() | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
24/03/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
24/03/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
24/03/2023 | 1400/1500 | ** | ![]() | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
24/03/2023 | 1500/1500 | ![]() | UK | BOE Mann Panellist at Global Independence Center Conference Ukraine | |
24/03/2023 | 1630/1630 | ![]() | UK | BOE Announces Q2 Active Gilt Sales Schedule |