EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Australian Jobs Growth Slows, But Labor Market Still Tight
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
BOE (MNI BOE PREVIEW): It would be a huge surprise to us, markets and sellside economists if there was anything other than a pause in the MPC’s cutting cycle at the March meeting with unchanged guidance. Probably the most interesting unknown is the voting split, with the number of plausible dovish dissents ranging from two to four – we suspect with a low conviction that there could be three, one more than consensus. We look at how each member is likely to vote in the detail.
EU
EU (ECONOMIST): “On Thursday a summit of European leaders begins in Brussels. High on the agenda is a new €40bn ($44bn) military support package for Ukraine proposed by the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “US President Donald Trump has held what he described as a "very good" hour-long phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, a day after speaking to Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Writing on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said the call was aimed at aligning Ukraine and Russia "in terms of their requests and needs", adding that ceasefire efforts were on track.”
TURKEY (BBC): “Protests have erupted in Turkey after authorities detained the mayor of Istanbul, just days before he was due to be selected as a presidential candidate. Ekrem Imamoglu, from the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), is seen as one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.”
US
FED (MNI FED WATCH): The Federal Reserve can afford to sit tight on monetary policy for now as increased uncertainty from President Donald Trump's tariffs policies could lead to one-time price hikes but also dampen economic activity in a way that reverses those effects, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
FED (MNI): Attached is a rough transcript of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's March press conference.
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday they expect to cut interest rates twice this year, the same as December, as inflation looks more persistent than thought and heightened uncertainty around tariff policies raises worries about an economic slowdown.
FED (BBG): “President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should cut rates, splitting with the US central bank as officials weigh the economic cost of his tariff push. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!”
OIL (BBG): “Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that “now is an attractive time to be buying oil” as the administration contemplates refilling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.”
TECH (FT/BBG): “Nvidia will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the US over the next four years, Financial Times reports, citing its chief executive Jensen Huang. “Overall, we will procure, over the course of the next four years, probably half a trillion dollars worth of electronics in total”
OTHER
ISRAEL (RTRS): “Israel's military said it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen early on Thursday as hostilities with Iran-backed Houthi militants intensified.”
ISRAEL (BBG): “Israel said it began a limited ground operation in Gaza on Wednesday, with troops returning to some positions outside population centers and officials vowing further pressure unless Hamas releases its 59 remaining hostages.”
NEW ZEALAND (MNI BRIEF): New Zealand’s economy exited recession over Q4, growing 0.7% q/q, 30 basis points higher than expected, and up from Q3’s 1% contraction, data from Stats NZ showed Thursday.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% over February, in line with expectations, while employment fell by 52,800, lower than the 30,000 jobs expected, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
HONG KONG (BBG): “ Hong Kong’s market regulator is planning to cap margin loans used to buy shares at initial public offerings, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to clamp down on heated demand from retail investors.”
COPPER (BBG): “Copper marched past its key threshold of $10,000 a ton after weeks of global trade dislocation triggered by President Donald Trump’s push for tariffs on the crucial industrial metal.”
CHINA
LOAN PRIME RATES (MNI BRIEF): China's Loan Prime Rate remained unchanged on Thursday according to a People's Bank of China statement, in line with expectations as some economic indicators reflected a continued recovery.
GRID INVESTMENT (MNI BRIEF): China’s investment in power grid projects totalled CNY43.6 billion during January and February, up 33.5% y/y, data from the National Energy Administration showed on Thursday.
MORTGAGES (SECURITIES DAILY): “Suzhou city has introduced customised mortgage loans to stimulate demand by lowering down payments, interest rates and monthly repayments, Securities Daily reported.”
INCOME (YICAI): “China should increase residents’ disposable income, especially for rural populations and improve social security to boost consumption, said Lian Ping, chairman at the China Chief Economist Forum.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY232.6 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY268.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY232.6 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY35.9 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1754 Thurs; -0.39% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1754 on Thursday, compared with 7.1697 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2348 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q4 GDP +0.7% Q/Q; EST. +0.4%; Q3 -1.1%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 GDP -1.1% Y/Y; EST. -1.4%; -1.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 S/ADJ EXPENDITURE-BASED GDP +0.8% Q/Q; EST. +0.4%; Q3 -0.9%
AUSTRALIA FEB. EMPLOYMENT -52.8K M/M; EST. +30K; JAN. +30.5K
AUSTRALIA FEB. PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT -17.0K M/M; JAN. -6.5K
AUSTRALIA FEB. FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT -35.7K M/M; JAN +37.0K
AUSTRALIA FEB. JOBLESS RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.1%; JAN. 4.1%
AUSTRALIA FEB. PARTICIPATION RATE 66.8%; EST. 67.3%; JAN. 67.2%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Futures Extend Post-FOMC Rally, No Cash Bond Dealings In Asia
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 111-02+, +0-02+ from closing levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer After Jobs Miss, Nov-29 Supply Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +6.0) are sharply richer after today’s February employment report.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Richer Despite GDP Beat, Supply Sees Solid Demand
NZGBs closed near session bests, 4-6bps richer with a flatter 2/10 curve.
FOREX: AUD & NZD Lower, JPY Edges Higher Despite Higher US Equity Futures
The USD BBDXY index sits slightly lower in the first part of Thursday dealings, the index last close to 1263.5. This has largely reflected modest JPY and CHF gains, while AUD and NZD have been weaker.
ASIA STOCKS: China Stocks Lag Whilst Region Bourses Strong Post Fed.
China’s bourses did their best to try to bring down the mood post Fed whilst regional bourses had a good day. In recent months, the Hang Seng has been buoyed by margin loans to buy shares seeing it rise 22% year to date. However, the regulator may be about to calm time on the activity, planning to cap market loans for IPOs specifically, requiring an initial deposit of 10% from retail investors.
In Taiwan, the high-profile supplier to Nvidia TSMC was up +3.00% today as reports suggest the company will spend an additional US$100bn to procure US-made chips and electronics over the coming years (source: BBG)
OIL: Crude Higher As Geopolitical Risk Premium Builds
Oil prices are higher during APAC trading driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as Iran-backed Houthis targeted Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. The US has said that it will continue to attack Yemen’s Houthis. Also Russia struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite being prepared to agree to an energy ceasefire. Thus oil’s geopolitical risk premium is gradually growing. Benchmarks have also continued to find support from yesterday’s EIA data showing robust US product demand.
GOLD: New Highs as China Article Warns on Gold Investing.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
20/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | Labour Market Survey |
20/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
20/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | ![]() | ECB's Lagarde At ECON Hearing | |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | SNB PolicyRate |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | SNB Interest Rate Decision |
20/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ![]() | Q1 Regional Network Survey | |
20/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Construction Production |
20/03/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | ![]() | CBI Industrial Trends |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | ![]() | ECB's Lane At UCC Economics Society's Conference | |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | ![]() | Agents summary of business conditions | |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Current Account Balance |
20/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ![]() | NAR existing home sales |
20/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | Natural Gas Stocks |
20/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | ![]() | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
20/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
20/03/2025 | 1650/1250 | ![]() | BOC Governor speaks in Calgary | |
20/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
21/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
21/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** | ![]() | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
21/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | Public Sector Finances |
21/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | ![]() | Manufacturing Sentiment |
21/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EZ Current Account |
21/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Retail Trade |
21/03/2025 | 1305/0905 | ![]() | New York Fed's John Williams |