Fig. 1: Citi China Economic Surprise Index
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
BOE: Details of the UK government's GBP100-billion-plus fiscal package aiming to partially offset the looming spike in energy bills look certain to come too late for the Bank of England to be able to fully factor them into considerations during its September rates-setting meeting. (MNI)
ECONOMY: UK consumer confidence slipped into negative territory for the first time since the pandemic lockdown in the middle of 2020, with homeowners more concerned the value of their property could be at risk. (BBG)
ECB: The European Central Bank may have to continue raising interest rates beyond February, longer than indicated by President Christine Lagarde, in order to bring inflation back to its 2% target, Bank of Latvia Governor Martins Kazaks told MNI. (MNI)
ECB: “Consumer price growth is likely to accelerate even more,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann tells Austrian state broadcaster ORF. (BBG)
ITALY: Mario Draghi is expected to push through a new energy aid package to families and businesses worth about 13.5 billion euros ($13.5 billion) a week before Italy’s general election. (BBG)
IRELAND: Ireland's finance minister said on Wednesday his department will cut its economic growth forecasts for next year as part of preparations for the government's Sept. 27 budget. (RTRS)
SWEDEN: The head of Sweden's Moderate Party, Ulf Kristersson, said on Wednesday he would begin the work of forming a new government after Prime Minster Magdalena Andersson conceded her Social Democrats had lost the weekend's general election. (RTRS)
ECONOMY: One of Washington’s most prominent business groups sent a warning about an impasse in Congress over a corporate tax break for research and development costs. (BBG)
TSYS: Hedge funds would have to start centrally clearing many of their transactions in US Treasuries under a new regulatory plan designed to protect against a market meltdown. (BBG)
EQUITIES: Proposed legislation to address U.S. lawmakers' stock holdings and trades should come together later this month, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters at a news conference on Wednesday. (RTRS)
GLOBAL TRADE: Senate Republicans failed in a bid to force labor unions and railroads to resolve a fight over contract negotiations, ahead of a strike that threatens to paralyze much of the US rail system. (BBG)
GLOBAL TRADE: Ukraine's foreign minister on Wednesday confirmed that the United Nations had started talks on reopening an ammonia pipeline from Russia to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa. The pipeline has been shut as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (RTRS)
U.S./CHINA: China’s ambassador to the US warned against the potential risks of trying to cut the country off, using a visit to the Detroit auto show to highlight the “intertwined” interests of the world’s two biggest economies. (BBG)
U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: A U.S. Senate committee on Wednesday approved legislation that would significantly enhance U.S. military support for Taiwan, including provisions for billions of dollars in additional security assistance, as China increases military pressure on the democratically governed island. (RTRS)
RUSSIA/CHINA: Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan early on Thursday afternoon, a schedule distributed by the Russian delegation to media showed. (RTRS)
GEOPOLITICS: Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiated a cease-fire to end a flare-up of fighting that has killed 155 soldiers from both sides, a senior Armenian official said early Thursday. (AP)
JAPAN: Japan lacks effective means to combat the yen's sharp falls, as intervening unilaterally in the currency market will likely have a limited impact in reversing its downtrend, Satsuki Katayama, head of a ruling party panel on financial affairs, said. (RTRS)
JAPAN: The vast majority of Japanese companies expect the yen to firm against the dollar by year-end, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Thursday, suggesting further weakness in the local currency could catch businesses off guard. (RTRS)
JAPAN: Japan will drop a ban on individual tourist visits and remove a cap on daily arrivals, Nikkei has learned, moving closer to pre-pandemic rules as the country looks to ride a global travel rebound. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to announce the changes in the coming days. (Nikkei)
JAPAN: The Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s panel of experts is considering lowering both of its Covid-19 and medical system strain alert levels by one notch from their current highest level as new infection numbers gradually subside, NHK reports, citing an unidentified person. (BBG)
JAPAN: Japan’s economy ministry is considering calling on households and businesses to conserve electricity this winter amid concerns the country may struggle to procure enough natural gas to meet its needs, public broadcaster NHK reports without attribution. (BBG)
RBA: The issues paper released today by the RBA review panel covers four areas: monetary policy arrangements, performance against objectives (CPI, unemployment rate), governance and the institution. They discuss a range of issues and potential reforms. It aims to adapt the central bank to a new era with different challenges. (MNI)
NEW ZEALAND: New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson says the country is entering a period of tighter spending and targeted investment as it emerges from the pandemic, according to notes for a speech in Auckland Thursday. (BBG)
SOUTH KOREA: South Korea's foreign exchange authority was seen selling dollars to curb the fall in the won after the currency hit its lowest in nearly 13-1/2 years, multiple dealers told Reuters on Thursday. (RTRS)
SOUTH KOREA: South Korea's foreign exchange authority on Thursday issued a verbal warning as the Korean won hit the lowest since March 2009 at 1,397.9 per dollar. "We are closely monitoring the currency market in case of any herd-like behaviour as volatility in Korean won's movement seen increasing," a text message from FX authority showed. (RTRS)
BRAZIL: Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes on Wednesday said that President Jair Bolsonaro would continue privatizing state companies if reelected in October. Speaking at an event promoted by businessmen in Rio de Janeiro, he also said that a new Bolsonaro term would decrease public spending as a proportion of GDP to 15% or 16 from a previous forecast of 18% for the end of this year. (RTRS)
RUSSIA: The Biden administration is discussing with Congress "analogous measures" to impose on Russia in place of those carried by a state sponsorship of terrorism designation, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Wednesday. (RTRS)
RUSSIA: Russian President Vladimir Putin "unfortunately" does not seem to have realized yet that the decision to invade Ukraine is a mistake, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Wednesday, commenting on a phone call with Putin a day earlier. (RTRS)
RUSSIA: Russian President Vladimir Putin told United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday that he welcomed "constructive" cooperation with the IAEA nuclear watchdog following its visit to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the Kremlin said. (RTRS)
RUSSIA: The US and EU are stepping up pressure on Turkey to crack down on Russian sanctions evasion amid concerns that the country’s banking sector is a potential backdoor for illicit finance. (FT)
RUSSIA: The US is focusing on Turkish banks that have integrated into Mir, Russia’s domestic payments system, two western officials involved in the plans told the FT, as Brussels prepares a delegation to express its concerns to Turkish officials directly. (FT)
RUSSIA: Russian government plans to impose export duties on coal, Kommersant reports, citing unidentified people familiar with discussions. (BBG)
RUSSIA: Russian consumer prices fell for a 10th straight week, led by a drop in prices for some staple vegetables, data showed on Wednesday, just two days before the central bank is expected to trim interest rates for the sixth time this year. (RTRS)
RUSSIA: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has emerged with “no serious injuries” from a car collision in Kyiv on Wednesday. (CNN)
IRAN: The Biden administration is considering sanctions targeting entities linked to Iran for encouraging attacks on Salman Rushdie, people familiar with the matter say, after the acclaimed novelist was stabbed last month at a New York event. (WSJ)
COMMODITIES: A potentially catastrophic strike of railroad workers across the US is starting to spook energy and commodities markets, raising the prices of everything from natural gas to corn loaded onto barges for delivery. (BBG)
ENERGY: The US shale industry has warned it cannot rescue Europe with increased oil and gas supplies this winter amid fears that a plunge in Russian exports will send crude prices soaring back above $100 a barrel. (FT)
ECONOMY: China’s economic growth is expected to bounce back in 3Q compared to the previous three months, China Securities Journal reported, citing early indicators and economists. (BBG)
YUAN: China needs to ensure it doesn't increase FX reserves to levels greatly more than needed, as increased reserves affect the independence of monetary policy and holding costs increase with diminishing marginal effect, wrote Guan Tao, a former official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in a blog post. (MNI)
BANKING: Some of the major banks in China are cutting personal deposit rates starting from Sept. 15, the Securities Times reports, citing multiple staff members of state-owned lenders in Beijing and Shanghai. (BBG)
PROPERTY/CREDIT: Chinese companies are curbing their dollar borrowings at a record pace this year, stung by a property debt crisis on top of rising rates that have dragged down corporate financing in the currency nearly everywhere. (BBG)
PROPERTY: Eastern Chinese city of Suzhou cancels local social insurance payment requirement citywide for first-home buyers with no local residential permit, China Business News reports, citing a local home trading center and a housing agent. (BBG)
CORONAVIRUS: Citywide lockdown in the popular tourist spot on southern Hainan will be lifted from noon Thursday, with supermarkets, malls, and other premises allowed to open, Hainan city government says on its WeChat account. (BBG)
PBOC NET DRAINS CNY200 BILLION VIA OMOS THURSDAY
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY2 billion via 7-day reverse repos and CNY400 billion 1-year medium-term lending facilities with the rate unchanged at 2.00% and 2.75%, respectively, on Thursday. The operation has led to a net drain of CNY200 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY2 billion repos and CNY600 MLFs today, according to Wind Information.
PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.9101 THURS VS 6.9116
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.9101 on Thursday, compared with 6.9116 set on Wednesday.
JAPAN AUG TRADE BALANCE -Y2,817.3BN; MEDIAN -2,385.7BN; JUL -Y1,433.9BN
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS +22.1% Y/Y; MEDIAN +24.1%; JUL +19.0%
JAPAN AUG IMPORTS +49.9% Y/Y; MEDIAN +46.9%; JUL +47.2%
JAPAN AUG ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE -Y2371.3BN; MEDIAN -2,085.1BN; JUL -Y2,155.6BN
JAPAN JUL TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX -0.6% M/M; MEDIAN -0.1%; JUN -0.4%
AUSTRALIA AUG EMPLOYMENT CHANGE +33.5K; MEDIAN +35.0K; JUL -40.9K
AUSTRALIA AUG FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT CHANGE +58.8K; JUL -86.9K
AUSTRALIA AUG PART TIME EMPLOYMENT CHANGE -25.3K; JUL +46.0K
AUSTRALIA AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3.5%; MEDIAN 3.4%; JUL 3.4%
AUSTRALIA AUG PARTICIPATION RATE 66.6%; MEDIAN 66.6%; JUL 66.4%
AUSTRALIA SEP CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS +5.4%; AUG +5.9%
AUSTRALIA AUG RBA FX TRANSACTIONS GOV’T -A$690MN; JUL -A$1,065MN
AUSTRALIA AUG RBA FX TRANSACTIONS MARKET +A$658MN; JUL +A$749MN
AUSTRALIA AUG RBA FX TRANSACTIONS OTHER -A$303MN; JUL +A$865MN
NEW ZEALAND Q2 GDP +0.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN +0.0%; Q1 +1.0%
NEW ZEALAND Q2 GDP SA +1.7% Q/Q; MEDIAN +1.0%; Q1 -0.2%
Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:
A modest cheapening bias was observed in Asia hours, aided by the previously outlined post-auction weakness and steepening on the JGB curve. The move in Tsys has been much more limited, with cash benchmarks running 2bp cheaper across the curve. TYZ2 operates in a fairly limited 0-08 range, last -0-05+ at 114-25+, just off lows on subdued volume of ~40K.
JGB futures are -15 ticks last, while the curve has bear steepened in the wake of a soft 20-Year JGB auction which saw a much lower than expected low price and the lowest cover ratio observed at a 20-Year auction in a decade.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y2.83778tn 1-Year Bills:
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y984.7bn 20-Year JGBs:
ACGBs sit a little off session cheaps at typing, with a continued downtick in U.S. Tsys & JGBs helping to unwind the twist flattening observed in futures overnight, which spilled over into early Sydney trade.
Most major Asia-Pac equity indices sit modestly higher on a positive lead from Wall St., with Chinese and South Korean benchmarks bucked the broader trend of gains.
WTI and Brent are little changed at writing, having traded on either side of neutral levels across Asia-Pac dealing, consolidating around the upper end of their respective ranges established on Wednesday.
Gold deals ~$3/oz weaker to print $1,695/oz, operating a little above Wednesday’s one-week lows at writing, having left the $1,700/oz mark unchallenged throughout Asia-Pac dealing so far.
Antipodean data took the limelight in the Asia-Pac session, with New Zealand's Q2 GDP beating expectations and Australian Aug labour force figures lacked any major surprises. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars outperform in the G10 FX basket, albeit by very thin margins as overall volatility in the space remained subdued.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 15/09/2022 | 0645/0845 | *** | ![]() | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/09/2022 | 0900/1100 | * | ![]() | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/09/2022 | 0915/1115 | ![]() | EU | ECB de Guindos Keynote Speech | |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Jobless Claims |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | Retail Sales |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 15/09/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 15/09/2022 | 1300/0900 | * | ![]() | CA | Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association) |
| 15/09/2022 | 1315/0915 | *** | ![]() | US | Industrial Production |
| 15/09/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | US | Business Inventories |
| 15/09/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 15/09/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 15/09/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | ![]() | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |