France and Slovakia are both likely to hold syndications today, while Greece, Germany and Portugal are scheduled to hold auctions. Tomorrow, Italy will conclude auction issuance for this week. Yesterday, the EU held a syndication while the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany held auctions. We pencil in gross issuance of E40.6bln for the week, down from E52.5bln last week.
For the full document with look ahead to issuance through the remainder of this week and next week click here
- France announced a mandate for a new 30 year May-57 OAT. The transaction will be launched by syndication in the “near future”, we pencil in today with a E8bln transaction size.
- This is not a surprise. We had written in our Issuance Deep Dive: "New 30-year OATs have been launched in February in each of 2025, 2024 and 2023 (as well as in January 2022). We think it highly likely that this pattern will continue and note that there is just over E20bln outstanding of the current 3.75% May-56 OAT (similar to the amount outstanding of the 3.25% May-55 OAT ahead of last year's syndication). Our base case is that the launch syndication is sized at E8bln (in line with the two previous 30-year launches)."
- Slovakia has also announced a mandate for a new 20-year Feb-46 SlovGB “in the near future”. Again we look for a transaction today and we pencil in a transaction size of E2.0-3.0bln (although the guidance from ARDAL in its annual plan was for syndications to be sized at E2.0-2.5bln).
- This is also in line with our expectations. We had written in our Issuance Deep Dive: "We expect the 12-20-year SlovGB to launch via syndication in February, but don't rule out a late January syndication. There has been a February syndication in each of the past three years... we think a 2045 or 2046 maturity is most likely (the bonds maturing in Feb-43 and Oct-47 are both still available for tapping). We pencil in a transaction size of E2.0-3.0bln (although the guidance from ARDAL is for E2.0-2.5bln)."
- Greece will be looking to sell E300mln of the 3.375% Jun-36 GGB (ISIN: GR0124042764) at its auction today.
- Germany will return to the market this morning to hold a LT Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the off-the-run 30-year 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004) alongside E1.0bln of the 2.90% Aug-56 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D012).
- Portugal will also look to hold an auction today for a combined E1.00-1.25bln. On offer will be the 1.95% Jun-29 OT (ISIN: PTOTEXOE0024) and the recently launched 10-year 3.25% Jun-36 OT (ISIN: PTOTEDOE0010).