MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Bearish Break

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Bearish Break 

• S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week. The recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to the next resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract continues to appreciate. The move higher this week confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend.                
• Strong gains on Thursday in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The pair has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and breached resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. EURJPY has traded higher this week and the recovery has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. For now, resistance at 161.01, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced on the latest rally, but a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71. USDCAD broke lower Thursday, breaking out of a tight trading range this week. The pair remains soft. A key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. 
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have pulled back from Tuesday high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.14. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA.
• The recent pullback in Bund futures resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA - currently at 132.61. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and attention is on 131.97, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Thursday’ gains are a positive development. The contract has recently traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0469 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0454 @ 06:10 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.0383 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing

A short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher yesterday also strengthens a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer - and suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0427. This paves the way for a recovery towards 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Resistance       

• RES 4: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2667 High Dec 19  
• RES 2: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2572 Intraday High  
• PRICE: 1.2560 @ 06:26 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.2434 Low Feb 13     
• SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger   

Strong gains on Thursday in GBPUSD strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The pair has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and breached resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.               

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Still Intact                  

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6   
• PRICE: 0.8229 @ 07:08 GMT Feb 14 
• SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The recent move higher still appears to have undermined a bearish threat, however. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of bearish price action would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.    

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.44/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12       
• PRICE: 152.53 @ 07:04 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Low Feb 12 / Low Feb 07
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24     

USDJPY faced resistance Thursday. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.44. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.         

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Key Resistance  

• RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24  
• RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
• RES 1: 161.01/19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
• PRICE: 159.82 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Low Feb 12 / 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
• SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23  

EURJPY has traded higher this week and the recovery has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. For now, resistance at 161.01, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced on the latest rally, but a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, reversal lower would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Challenging Resistance         

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg                
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6334 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.6333 @ 08:09 GMT Feb 14 
• SUP 1: 0.6231 Low Feb 10 
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading higher again, today. The pair has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6301. Attention is on 0.6331 (pierced), the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. This suggests the latest recovery is a correction. Initial support to watch is 0.6231, the Feb 10 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends 

• RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
• RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003 
• RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10     
• PRICE: 1.4159 @ 08:17 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24

USDCAD broke lower Thursday, breaking out of a tight trading range this week. The pair remains soft. A key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A break would highlight an early bullish reversal signal. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Trendline Support        

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 133.00/71 50-day EMA / High Feb 5                 
• PRICE: 132.88 @ 05:40 GMT Feb 14 
• SUP 1: 131.97/62 Trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low / Low Jan 31      
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)     

The recent pullback in Bund futures resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA - currently at 132.61. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and attention is on 131.97, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A break would expose a key support at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 133.71, Feb 5 high. A break of this level resumes the bull cycle.                         

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Remains Above Trendline Support       

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.576/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5                              
• PRICE: 117.560 @ 05:56 GMT Feb 14  
• SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12                  
• SUP 2: 116.984 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and  key support       

Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.423. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 116.984. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. Clearance of it resumes the recent uptrend.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle               

• RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg   
• RES 2: 107.045 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 106.856/975 50-day EMA / High Feb 10          
• PRICE: 106.835 @ 06:14 GMT Feb 14   
• SUP 1: 106.705 Low Feb 12               
• SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the short-term uptrend. On the downside, a continuation lower would instead open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low.                                        

GILT TECHS: (H5) Finds Support             

• RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11 ‘24 
• RES 3: 95.11 High Dec 12 ‘24   
• RES 2: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 94.35 High Feb 6 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: 93.37 @ Close Feb 14
• SUP 1: 92.31 Low Feb 12                                 
• SUP 2: 91.96/91.52 Low Jan 29 / 24
• SUP 3: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 4: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Thursday’ gains are a positive development. The contract has recently traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.75, the 76.4% retracement. Initial support at 92.31, the Feb 12 low. The next firm support to watch lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Structure Remains Bullish                          

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11       
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7    
• PRICE: 120.42 @ Close Feb 13 
• SUP 1: 119.65 Low Feb 12           
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Price has recently traded above both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Approaching The All-Time High                    

• RES 4: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 3: 5528.87 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing    
• RES 2: 5525.00 March 2000 all-time high
• RES 1: 5511.00 High Feb 13             
• PRICE: 5486.00 @ 06:43 GMT Feb 14   
• SUP 1: 5371.00/5283.40 Low Feb 12 / 20-day EMA            
• SUP 2: 5144.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

The Eurostoxx 50 futures contract continues to appreciate. The move higher this week confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on a major resistance at 5525.00, the March 2000 all-time high. Clearance of this level would highlight a key bullish break. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5283.40, the 20-day EMA.           

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Approaching Key Resistance Points             

• RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 6162.25 High Jan 24                 
• PRICE: 6143.75 @ 07:45 GMT Feb 14 
• SUP 1: 6069.60 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14

S&P E-Minis have traded higher this week. The recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to the next resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would be viewed as a bearish development. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Tests Support                        

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $77.34/81.20 - High Feb 3 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $75.38 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 14  
• SUP 1: $74.10/06 - Low Feb 6 / 13 
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support 

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs and attention is on support at $74.10, the Feb 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight a stronger reversal, signalling scope for a deeper pullback, towards $71.25, the Dec 20 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $77.34, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this level would once again highlight a bullish development.                

WTI TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present                  

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24   
• PRICE: $71.60 @ 07:28 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $70.43/22 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger / Low Feb 13   
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support  

WTI futures have pulled back from Tuesday high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.14. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $75.18. A move above this level is required to reinstate a bull theme.          

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North               

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2982.7 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
• PRICE: $2937.2 @ 07:31 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2820.6 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2745.4 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 4: $2689.5 - Low Jan 20

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2820.6, the 20-day EMA.                   

SILVER TECHS: Northbound  

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                
• PRICE: $33.188 @ 08:26 GMT Feb 14   
• SUP 1: $31.469/005 - 20- and 50-day EMA values         
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

A bull theme in Silver remains intact and today’s strong rally reinforces current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.006, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.