MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY at Fresh Cycle Highs

Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY at Fresh Cycle Highs

• S&P E-Minis traded lower again yesterday but the contract remains above its recent lows. The outlook is bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are broadly unchanged and continue to trade above 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down.
• USDJPY is on the move again and has traded to a fresh cycle high today above the 138.00 handle. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in bull mode condition and this clearly highlights current market sentiment. EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair - very briefly - showed below parity yesterday, the key psychological support. Trend signals still point south and a clear breach of 1.00 would open 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. USDCAD continues to trade above its most recent lows and importantly from a bullish perspective, remains above support at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 1.2858.
• Gold remains in a downtrend. The yellow metal traded sharply lower last week, clearing a key short-term support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces bearish conditions. A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday and a move lower yesterday have confirmed a resumption of the short-term downtrend and the end of the recent corrective recovery. The contract has traded below $95.10, the Jul 6 low.
• Bund futures remain in an uptrend following Tuesday’s high print above resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Looking For A Clear Break Of Parity

• RES 4: 1.0530 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0318/59 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0122/0191 High Jul 13 / High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.0025 @ 05:55 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.9998/9982 Low Jul 13 / Bear channel base
• SUP 2: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD trend conditions remain bearish and the pair - very briefly - showed below parity yesterday, the key psychological support. Trend signals still point south and a clear breach of 1.00 would open 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. Note that there is a firm support at 0.9982 today - the base of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1.0191. Gains would be considered corrective.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 2: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.2056/2095 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1861 @ 06:09 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.1807 Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD is unchanged. Trend conditions remain bearish - a fresh trend low on Tuesday of 1.1807 confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This marks an extension of last week’s move lower that resulted in a break of a bear trigger at 1.1934, Jun 14 low. The focus is on 1.1795 next, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would open the Mar 26 2020 lows of 1.1777. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2095, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Near-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8521 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8452 @ 06:25 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.8403 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

EURGBP short-term conditions remain bearish and the cross continues to trade at levels below the 50-day EMA. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces a bearish threat. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement with the focus on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.8521, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.48 1.00 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23
• PRICE: 139.24 @ 09:27 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 137.28 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.56/134.27 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: 133.50 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 132.68 50-day EMA

USDJPY is on the move again and has traded to a fresh cycle high today above the 138.00 handle. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies remain in bull mode condition and this clearly highlights current market sentiment. The focus is on 139.48, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the psychological 140.00 handle. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at 135.56, marks initial support.

EURJPY TECHS: Firmer Off Lows, But Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 139.85 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 139.17 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 138.71 @ 06:44 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 135.54 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY is fimer off the lows, but prices remain well below the week’s best levels. The cross appears vulnerable following the reversal from 144.28, the Jun 28 high. Price remains below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and has recently traded below support at 137.85. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and open 136.25, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 139.85, the 20-day EMA ahead of 142.37, the July 5 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.0.6987/7069 50-day EMA / High Jun 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6869/6964 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
• PRICE: 0.6750 @ 06:52 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.6711/6685 Low Jul 12 / High Mar 9 2020
• SUP 2: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6538 Low May 26 2020

AUDUSD is unchanged. The pair maintains a bearish tone - a fresh trend low this week reinforces bearish conditions. The move lower on Monday resulted in a break of support at 0.6762, the Jul 5 / 6 low and 0.6759, 50.0% of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle. The breach sets the scene for a move towards 0.6685, the Mar 9 2020 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6869, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Still Intact

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 1: 1.3084 High Jul 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3002 @ 07:15 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.2936/32 Low Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2858 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2763 Low Jun 13

USDCAD continues to trade above its most recent lows and importantly from a bullish perspective, remains above support at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 1.2858. Broader trend conditions remain bullish after the recent print above resistance at 1.3079, May 17 high and a bull trigger. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3113, the Nov 23 ‘20 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 155.01 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 154.65 High May 27
• RES 2: 154.00 Round number
• RES 1: 153.48 High Jul 12
• PRICE: 152.37 @ 05:08 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 149.75 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 3: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures remain in an uptrend following Tuesday’s high print above resistance at 152.92, the Jul 6 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the 154.00 handle next ahead of 154.65, the May 27 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 149.75, the July 11 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 3: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.560 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 125.540 @ 05:16 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 124.549 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 120.990 Low Jun 21

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and attention is on resistance at 126.560, the Jul 6 high. The recent breach of 123.960, the Jun 24 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and price has established a positive sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for gains towards 126.710, the May 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 121.190, Jun 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.445 @ 05:22 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 109.258 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: 108.025 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 107.705 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

Schatz futures remain below recent highs. The short-term outlook is unchanged and the trend needle points north. Resistance at 109.030, Jun 24 high, has recently been cleared. This marked an extension of a corrective cycle and price has established a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 110.063, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 108.425, Jun 28 low.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.93 @ Close Jul 13
• SUP 1: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 109.89 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price has cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. A resumption of strength would open 117.48 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 111.72, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 126.41 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 124.99 @ Close Jul 13
• SUP 1: 123.34/121.56 20-day EMA / Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 119.81 Low Jun 28 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures remain inside the recent range and this period of consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation. The short-term trend condition is bullish - resistance at 122.80, the Jun 24 high, has been breached. The break suggests potential for a stronger correction and attention is on 127.79, May 26 high. Initial key support to watch is 119.81, Jun 28 low. A break would instead signal a potential short-term top and the end of the corrective cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3584.00 High Jun 27 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3504.00/3566.10 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3457.00 @ 05:03 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3321.30 50.0% retracement the major 2020 - 2021 upleg
• SUP 3: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are broadly unchanged and continue to trade above 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. Last week’s breach of 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and highlights a resumption of the downtrend, opening 3321.30, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is at 3504.00, Jul 8 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger bounce.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Key Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 3967.37 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3794.25 @ 06:46 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower again yesterday but the contract remains above its recent lows. The outlook is bearish, following the reversal from 3950.00, the Jun 28 high. The next support lies at 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A breach of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 3950.00 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 3967.37.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $108.22/114.75 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.70 High Jul 8
• PRICE: $99.63 @ 06:53 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $98.28 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $97.25 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $95.92 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $95.13 - Low Mar 29

Brent futures remain bearish following Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. This marks the end of the recent corrective bounce and a resumption of the current bear cycle. Price has traded below $98.50, the Jul 6/7 low and a bear trigger. A continuation lower would reinforce the current downtrend and open $97.25 next, the Apr 25 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $107.70, the Jul 11 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Heading South

• RES 4: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $114.05 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $105.73/111.45 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $105.24 - High Jul 8
• PRICE: $96.21 @ 06:58 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $93.67- Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: $93.45 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 3: $90.13 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 14 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $86.81 - Low Mar 15

A sharp sell-off in WTI futures Tuesday and a move lower yesterday have confirmed a resumption of the short-term downtrend and the end of the recent corrective recovery. The contract has traded below $95.10, the Jul 6 low. This marks an extension of the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $93.45 next, Apr 25 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $105.24, the Jul 8 high.

GOLD TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: $1841.8 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $1822.4 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1752.3/83.2 - High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1725.1 @ 07:25 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $1706.8 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 2: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9 2021
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains in a downtrend. The yellow metal traded sharply lower last week, clearing a key short-term support and bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and this week’s extension reinforces bearish conditions. The focus is on $1706.8 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current bearish sentiment. Initial firm resistance is at $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Bears Still In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.222 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $20.120 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18. 984 @ 08:00 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $18.746 - Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: $18.693 - 61.8% retracement of Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $18.447 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $18.250 - Low Jul 8 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish following a resumption of the downtrend last week, and Tuesday’s fresh trend low. This marks an extension of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. The metal has also cleared the $20.00 handle and sights are on $18.693 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The 20-day EMA, at $20.216, marks a key S/T resistance.