MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURJPY Bull Cycle Firms Further

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in EUR/JPY Firms Further

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Recent gains in Eurostoxx 50 futures from the Jun 23 low still appear to be a potential bull reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.                       
• The trend set-up in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has cleared support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards the next key support at the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and trend signals continue to point south. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3762, remains intact.
• Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5. WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.09. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending Monday’s sell-off. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and today’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish                      

• RES 4: 1.1979 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1714 @ 06:10 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.1687 Low Jul7
• SUP 2: 1.1637 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1590 Low Jun 25 
• SUP 4: 1.1458 50-day EMA

The latest pullback in EURUSD appears corrective. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish - moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Note too that corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1646, the 20-day EMA.       

GBPUSD TECHS: Correction Extends    

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3589 @ 06:27 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.3526 Low Jul 08
• SUP 2: 1.3473 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3389 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
• SUP 4: 1.3245 Low May 19

The trend set-up in GBPUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has cleared support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards the next key support at the 50-day EMA. at 1.3473. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the M/T uptrend is intact.           

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Flag  

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 0.8621 @ 06:48 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 0.8562/8511 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Recent activity appears to be a bull flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher and a confirmation of the flag would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8562, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate   

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 148.03 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 147.18 Intraday high
• PRICE: 146.99 @ 07:27 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 145.83 Low Jul 8  
• SUP 2: 145.02 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support  

USDJPY continues to appreciate and maintains a firmer short-term tone. The latest recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger reversal. 146.77, 76.4% of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Support to watch is 145.02, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be bearish. 

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound  

• RES 4: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
• RES 2: 172.92 High Jul 16 ‘24
• RES 1: 172.38 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• PRICE: 172.19 @ 07:59 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 169.77  Low Jul 07
• SUP 2: 168.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 167.13 Low Jun 20  
• SUP 4: 166.27 50-day EMA   

A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross continues to appreciate. Fresh cycle highs this week confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 172.38 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 168.70, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6544 @ 08:03 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
• SUP 2: 0.6474/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high earlier this month maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6474, the 50-day EMA.     

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Point South      

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21 
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23 
• RES 1: 1.3694/3762 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3671 @ 08:10 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and trend signals continue to point south. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3762, remains intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Intact                           

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 130.76/131.33 High Jul 4 / High Jun 20
• RES 1: 130.10/130.47 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.65 @ 05:50 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 129.39 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.30 Low May 22
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 4: 128.90 Low Apr 10 

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending Monday’s sell-off. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.47, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.                                                   

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support                        

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
• RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4 
• RES 1: 117.761 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 117.460 @ 06:06 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 117.360 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 2: 117.210 1.000 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing 
• SUP 3: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support       

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday, resulting in a break of support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and cancels the recent bull theme. Scope is seen for a move towards 117.210, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 117.761, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal. This would refocus attention on 118.060, the Jun 20 high.                                 

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support                               

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.277/365 20-day EMA / High Jul 7 
• PRICE: 107.215 @ 06:29 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23   
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures have traded lower this week but for now remain inside a range. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.365, the Jun 7 high.                                                            

GILT TECHS: (U5) Breaches Support                         

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 92.79 High Jul 4     
• RES 2: 92.61 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 91.98 Intraday high
• PRICE: 91.52 @ 13:34 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 91.42 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 91.16 Low Feb 2
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and today’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. This exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.61, the 20-day EMA.                                       

BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 120.44 @ Close Jul 8
• SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23     
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21 
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23  low.                   

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Recovery Intact   

• RES 4: 5500.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger
• RES 2: 5456.00 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 5408.00 High Jul 8   
• PRICE: 5396.00 @ 06:54 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Recent gains in Eurostoxx 50 futures from the Jun 23 low still appear to be a potential bull reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The clear break of both averages strengthens a reversal theme. This opens 5486.00, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.                

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play   

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6333.25 High Jul 3   
• PRICE: 6263.50 @ 07:24 BST Jul 9 
• SUP 1: 6235.50 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 2: 6163.03/6021.70 20- and 50-day EMA values  
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6021.70.        

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U5) Gains Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.69 @ 07:06 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and the latest round of gains are considered corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, highlighting a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.             

WTI TECHS: (Q5) Bear Threat Still Present           

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23 
• PRICE: $68.20 @ 07:20 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $65.09/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.09. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.     

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support                                          

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3395.1/3451.3 - High Jun 23 / 16 
• RES 1: $3365.8 - High Jul 3         
• PRICE: $3291.1 @ 07:54 BST Jul 9
• SUP 1: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $3085.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 22 bull leg  

Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false t-line break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low.          

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook                    

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $36.594 @ 08:14 BST Jul 9  
• SUP 1: $36.198 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $35.085/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.198, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.085, the 50-day EMA.